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- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: My Electoral College prediction
Two things, I think you meant to click New Hampshire for McCain, not Vermont. Secondly, I have not seen anything suggesting McCain is viable in Jersey, however McCain has been up for a while in Nevada. With that scenario, that puts us at the 269-269 I was talking about in another thread. I still argue McCain has a very good chance of taking PA, escpecially since the NRA is rolling out 40 million in ads against Obama and the people in the majority of PA are very pro-gun.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: My Electoral College prediction
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … -4-2-3-1-3
That is my current prediction of how the election will turn out. For months I thought Ohio would be the key state, but the more and more I look at the numbers, I'm giving that status to Pennsylvania. I just don't see Obama taking Ohio at this point.
I know that two states divide their electoral ( I forget which), so that may prevent the 269 scenario I see as a real possibility now. If I knew what states have that, it would help determine the numbers. Although if this is decided for either candidate because one state gives their electorals proportionally, I can see a big out cry. Though forcing proportional electorals around the board would hurt democrats since roughly 40% of the electorals in CA and NY would goto Republicans which would drastically cut Dems numbers.
Re: My Electoral College prediction
During the Palin craze Obama's numbers took a dive in Jersey, giving McCain a shot. I think McCain can win some of those northeastern states. No one has been reeled in hook, line, and sinker on Obama yet. I don't care what the polls say. Yelling change every nanosecond and voting for the guy in private are two entirely different things.
One of the states that divides electoral votes is Maine, but I have no idea what the other one is.
If its a tie and this lame congress gets to choose our leaders, I want Bush to cancel the election and void the results.
Although God would deliver a sweet dose of karma to liberals if there was a tie. We'd most likely have an Obama/Palin administration.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: My Electoral College prediction
Actually, I read up on this. The 12th amendment addresses such an issue. In the event that no candidate gets 270 votes, the House determines the President and the Senate the Vice-President. However, in the House, each state only gets one vote and 2/3 of the states representatives need to be present for that state's vote to count. So California and New York would have the same say as Wyoming and Alaska. Presuming the members of each state voted for whom their state voted for, McCain would be the clear victor as he will win more states than Obama.
The Senate votes on the VP, but every Senator's vote counts. To win, they need over 50% of teh votes or 51. There is debate as to wether the VP can cast the deciding vote over a tie, so in the off chance that would happen, the Supreme Court would have to decide if Cheney can cast the tie breaker.
And to answer your question, the other state is Nebraska. Both states give 2 electoral votes for the popular winner, and their remaining votes (2 for Maine, 3 for Nebraska) based on the popular vote in each Congressional district.
