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- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
I'm writing policy memorandums so I don't want to get distracted, but the posts you linked to are not remotely the same as your claim. The posts you linked state that McCain got a bounce from the convention. Then a bunch of posters saying the debates are what's going to decide this. Nothing about McCain blowing away Obama as you suggest. None the less, I'm not responsible for what other posters say with regard to Obama's obvious drop in the polls.
You're right, the most recent NATIONAL polls have Obama leading around 2%. But as stated earlier, national polls mean absolutely nothing. If everyone in New York and California and Texas voted for Obama, that'd be a huge portion of the population (I'd assume nearly half) but would only constitute less than 1/4 of the overall electoral vote. Obama can win the national vote all day long, but as long as McCain can pull in the electorals, he's the winner.
That is what I meant by objectivity. Pointing to national polls and ignoring the battleground state polls isn't being objective and it certainly isn't being realistic. It's grasping for straws to show support for your side. Obama supporters aren't the only ones guilty of this, but it just so happens to be them in the current situation.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Nothing about McCain blowing away Obama as you suggest.
I understand your busy and I hope you're well, but the title of the thread linked was "McCain destroying Obama in latest Gallup Poll "??!!
How is that NOT saying McCain blowing away Obama. It's almost verbatim.
Anyway, I know what you're saying about state polls mattering more than National. But keep in mind McCain led in almost EVERY national poll for the last 2 weeks. Now he isn't, and with the events I mentioned it's pretty safe to assume it is an across the board issue in every state that's taken over (economy) and no certain states would extremely be influenced by it, like you stated about NY & CA TX. In fact, since it's the economy that is giving Obama momentum it would be pretty logical to think that especially Mich & Ohio would be states where he is getting a boost. States affected by the economy.
As I said where there's smoke there's fire.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
I get what you're saying and I'm not going to dwell on the point, but it say destroying Obama in latest gallup poll. Which quite frankly was true. Just as it would be true to say Obama is destroying McCain in CA or NY or a poll that shows him with a significant lead.
This thing is far from over as almost everyone has said. The debates will have an impact. But in my opinion, Obama will lose when it comes time to specify an issue or stance on the spot. Obama is a fantastic speaker when he is prepared and when he controls the flow. But as we've seen, when put in a hot seat, he doesn't have that magic spark as when he's in a room full of roaring supporters. That's one of the few valid complaints against Obama from the start, his vagueness. And when he is questioned about his policy and responds with the hope and change mantra, the moderator nods and asks "What does that all mean?" , Obama may be found wanting. You may not like McCain's answers, but at least he explains how he's going to accomplish his goals. The recent analysis on both candidates health care policies highlight just that point. But in summation, those expecting the great speeches and highlights from his rallies to exist in the debates are probably going to be disapointed.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Randall Flagg wrote:Nothing about McCain blowing away Obama as you suggest.
I understand your busy and I hope you're well, but the title of the thread linked was "McCain destroying Obama in latest Gallup Poll "??!!
How is that NOT saying McCain blowing away Obama. It's almost verbatim.
Anyway, I know what you're saying about state polls mattering more than National. But keep in mind McCain led in almost EVERY national poll for the last 2 weeks. Now he isn't, and with the events I mentioned it's pretty safe to assume it is an across the board issue in every state that's taken over (economy) and no certain states would extremely be influenced by it, like you stated about NY & CA TX. In fact, since it's the economy that is giving Obama momentum it would be pretty logical to think that especially Mich & Ohio would be states where he is getting a boost. States affected by the economy.
As I said where there's smoke there's fire.
Last polls I saw show that most Americans trust McCain on the Economy more than Obama. So if it's an Economy issue, why would Obama take a lead. The people of Ohio and Michigan are the blue collar, gun owning types that Obama is the weakest with. Clinton won all but 5 counties against Obama for just that very reason. Right or wrong, Obama is viewed as a leftist elitist, and the blue collar workers of MI, PA and OH aren't as receptive to him as they are Clinton - they are the very voters that will make or break him.
I could be wrong about the economy poll, but I could have sworn I read that more voters trust McCain with the economy than Obama.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Some noticeable trends:
WASHINGTON (AFP) - Democrat Barack Obama topped two key national polls Thursday which showed the financial crisis reverberating through the White House race and "Palin power" fading for the Republican ticket.
The Democratic hopeful, who has been lacerating rival John McCain over his capacity to rescue the US economy, led 49 to 45 percent in a new poll of likely voters nationwide by Quinnipiac University.
In a CBS/New York Times survey, Obama was up by 48 percent to 43 percent, with the race apparently reverting to the narrow Democratic ascendency seen before two presidential nominating conventions.
McCain's selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate had rocked the race and electrified the conservative base, pushing the Republican into the lead in polls and spreading panic among some Democrats.
But recent opinion snapshots polls appear to show Palin's injection of momentum for McCain diminishing.
"Senator Obama is right back where he was before the so-called convention bounces with a four-point lead," said Maurice Carroll, director the Quinnipiac University polling institute.
"The Democratic discombobulation after the selection of Governor Palin as GOP running mate seems to be steadying."
The Quinnipiac survey suggested that economic arguments may be swaying support towards Obama.
In the poll, 51 percent said that McCain's proposed tax cut will help the rich while only nine percent say it will aid the middle class.
Thirty-three percent say Obama's tax plans will help the middle class and only nine percent say it will benefit the rich.
The Quinnipiac poll showed that Obama led 54-40 percent among women voters, the key demographic which Palin is targeting for Republicans.
He had a 91 percent lead among African-Americans and was the favorite of young voters and those over 55, while independents were split 46 to 45 percent.
McCain did best among men, 50-43 percent and led 71 percent to 21 percent among white evangelical Christians -- a figure reflecting Palin's impact on core Republican voters.
The survey was conducted between September 11 and Tuesday, so is likely to have been influenced by the latest US financial crisis which erupted at the weekend.
The CBS survey found that independents who favored Obama in late August moved to McCain in days following the Republican convention, then returned to Obama in the last week, the survey showed.
Independents favored Obama over McCain by 46 percent to 41 percent in the survey conducted between September 12 and 16 with a margin of error of three percent.
The CBS poll also showed that despite McCain's attempts to seize the mantle of "change" from Obama, voters were more likely to see the Democratic candidate as an agent of reform -- by 65 to 37 percent.
The poll also found that women have returned to Obama after favoring McCain by five points just two weeks ago. Obama now leads McCain by 54 percent to 38 percent among all women.
Though Obama has the edge on the national stage, another fresh survey by CNN/Time magazine/Opinion Research Corp. had the two candidates virtually tied in five pivotal states: Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Obama and McCain were expected to renew their battle over the global credit crisis, after central banks injected more than 300 billion dollars into the markets and pressure mounted on Morgan Stanley and Swiss bank UBS.
Obama was campaigning in the key western battleground of New Mexico, while McCain and Palin were due to stump in midwestern Iowa, which polls show is trending towards the Democrats and battleground Wisconsin.
On Wednesday, the candidates traded stinging blows over the crisis as Obama ridiculed McCain as a lifelong member of the "old boys' network" that the Republican said had driven the US economy into crisis.
McCain vowed to take on Wall Street's "casino culture" after the US government's 85-billion-dollar bailout of giant insurer American International Group, the latest shock of a horrific fortnight for the financial industry.
Both candidates indicated the Federal Reserve's lifeline was regrettable but necessary to prevent AIG's troubles engulfing the wider economy.
Ahead of the November 4 election, Obama is driving home his polling edge on the economy to hammer his Republican adversary as out of touch with voters' anxieties in the face of rising job losses and home seizures.
