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Re: Obama takes lead in polls
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a 2-point lead in the U.S. presidential race on Republican John McCain, whose choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate helped shore up support for both candidates, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.
Obama leads McCain among likely voters by 47 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error. He gained ground in the last month among independent and women voters and on the question of who could best manage the faltering U.S. economy.
Obama wiped out McCain's 5-point edge in a Reuters/Zogby poll taken in August before the nominating conventions, a sign the Arizona senator could be drifting back to earth from what other opinion polls showed was a post-convention surge.
"We're back to where we always thought we would be -- in a very competitive race," pollster John Zogby said.
The poll, taken Thursday through Saturday, follows a hectic month in the race to the November 4 election as both parties held their nominating conventions and both candidates selected their vice presidential running mates.
McCain's choice of Sarah Palin, an anti-abortion and pro-gun first-term governor from Alaska, as his No. 2 set off a political firestorm that helped stoke conservative enthusiasm for the Republican ticket.
But Zogby said Palin also helped solidify Democratic support for Obama. "For the last few weeks it's been all about Palin and she has been a divisive force," he said. "She has shored up the base for both candidates."
Obama, who struggled to solidify Democrats in August when just 74 percent backed him, now has the support of 89 percent of Democrats. McCain's support among Republicans grew from 81 percent last month to 89 percent.
Nearly one-third of likely voters said the choice of Palin made them more likely to support McCain and nearly one-quarter said it made them less likely. About 43 percent said it would have no effect.
Obama's selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as his No. 2 had less impact. About 23 percent said they were more likely to vote for Obama with Biden on the ticket and 16 percent said they were less likely.
MCCAIN STILL LEADS ON ECONOMY
Half of all voters said the economy was the top issue, and the poll showed McCain narrowly led Obama on the question of which candidate could best manage the economy by 47 percent to 45 percent.
But that was a significant gain for Obama from McCain's 9-point advantage last month. The poll was taken before Sunday's upheaval on Wall Street with the fall of Lehman Brothers Holding and the sale of Merrill Lynch.
Obama has tried to refocus the campaign on his proposals for the economy after a Republican convention where he was heavily criticized as a liberal elitist unfamiliar with the struggles of working families.
The Illinois senator wiped out McCain's 5-point August lead among independents and expanded his edge over McCain among women, two crucial swing voting blocs in November.
Obama now has a statistically insignificant 1-point edge over McCain among independents and has a 7-point lead among women, up from a 2-point advantage last month.
He also gained ground among Catholics and older voters, but lost support to McCain among suburban voters and small-town residents. Palin has made her background as the mayor of Wasilla, a town of about 9,000 residents, a key component of her political biography.
The poll found McCain and Obama were in an absolute dead heat at 45 percent when independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr were added to the mix. Nader earned 2 percent and Barr 1 percent of the vote.
The telephone poll of 1,008 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
The poll was taken as McCain and Obama head into three potentially crucial debates beginning on September 26 in Oxford, Mississippi. Palin and Biden will hold one debate on October 2 in St. Louis.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Since I'm not a dem, I'm not gonna rule out the validity of a poll nanoseconds after its release just because it doesn't support the candidate I'm voting for.
He has to keep this lead for several weeks before we can know if a trend is emerging. Like has been stated before, the polls bounce back and forth although McCain has had the lead for several weeks.
Is the reason the Palin craze is winding down? Convention bounce over? Attack ads working?
We'll have to see how this develops...
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
I know you'll find my opinion biased but I think it's a result of the poll results are now starting to be taken after the Palin interview and Mondays economic news & McCains statements about it that he's still covering up for (People are Fundamentals), and people vote with their pockets. By Friday I think Obama will lead in almost all national polls (Gallup, Rasmussen, USA Today etc)
While polls change, I'm pretty sure Obama will ride this into at least the first Debate which is next Friday I think. Which is a good thing for Obama to go in confident with a lead. Then a week later is the VP debate too.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Just because we don't agree on some of these issues doesn't mean I think everything you say is biased. As far as polls go, you are a bit biased because when I post polls showing McCain leading you denounce them as garbage but when Obama is leading its the truth. Lots of people do that, but I find it a bit odd. This election has been pretty damn close, and with the economy tanking big time, these polls are probably gonna play teeter totter on an even bigger scale.
He will probably keep this lead until the debates. Almost impossible for McCain to take a lead in a poll like this that soon, and even in tracking polls the lead wouldn't be acknowledged for awhile because they wait for the trend. They normally dont post daily results.
McCain still leading with independents and that is crucial, regardless of what various polls say. If Obama can grab the independents in all polls, then McCain is in trouble.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Like I said last week, candidate support ebbs and flows. The trend is toward Obama. The Palin hype has died down.
CNN's new polls show Obama has wiped out McCain's lead in both Ohio and Florida, and he's competitive in Indiana, which is just as unbelievable if McCain were within 6 points in Cali. He's also within 1 point in N.C. and up 3 in Wisconsin.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Some polls are just garbage and have no historical accuracy. The two polls I follow are Survey USA and Rasmussen. All through out the primaries, these two were spot on in their predictions. Gallup and Zogby are total garbage (compare their predictions during the primary) and I wouldn't whipe my ass with the paper they're printed on. I also stay away from any partisan polls, although if a Partisan poll shows their candidate behind, I tend to give it a lil more thought.
All the recent polls show McCain with a healthy lead in Florida and Ohio. Obama supporters thinking Obama has a chance to win in Indiana and Florida are just kidding themselves. While Obama has a great shot at taking Ohio, it is is still in McCain's court and with Obama's recent demise in PA and MI, him pulling out Ohio seems even less likely if that trend continues.
People shouldn't assume the tides have turned when one orginization releases a single poll showing something different than everyone else. That is why I goto realclearpolitics.com and compare all recent poll data.
Although I strongly believe that Obama is going to get spanked in the debates. Obama excels in stadiums where he can deliver feel good speeches with vague promises for change. When cornered on exact policy proposal, he faulters. That's what the debates are about and the Obama cheerleading section will be absent.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Alot's happened recently though RF. There was an interview last week that bombed with McCains VP choice, & economic failures on Monday rendered her irrelevant, unemployment #'s were relased a while ago & are the highest in 5 years, likely to get worse, 3 MAJOR corporations have collapsed & the Stock market had almost a 10% drop in 3 days. And McCain has done no better on economic policy, with things he's said recently & in the past. Polls always have a delay, for example they'll start the poll today (Thursday), finish it on Saturday, & then release it on Sunday. So there's usually a 4-5 days lag time for current events to show up.
Oh, and that website you always used, Realclearpolitics.com http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … a-225.html has Obama up in 5 out of 6 national polls. I also saw on TV this morning Florida is now tied & Obama is up 2% in Ohio. I'll try to find an article about it & paste it.
EDIT: It's actually in the article BigBri posted, the latest CNN/Time poll. You may not buy into that poll which is understandable, but you should realize where there's smoke there's fire.
And no, Obama is not going to get "spanked" in the debates.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
Like I said in my post, polls ebb and flow. I don't think he'll win Ind. I grew up there. It's full of racist white backwoods folks. No way they'll vote Dem.
But to deny any shift toward Obama is just wishful thinking. I gave McCain credit when he shot up. A little poll movement shouldn't scare anyone.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
The CNN Poll is the only poll that shows an increase though. Look at the Ohio section on realclearpolitics. Several polls were released over the exact same time frame and all but the CNN one showed McCain ahead. I'm not calling it one way or the other, but to assume Palin's interview affected anyone but the die-hard Obama (or Palin) supporters is foolish. She said nothing that would offend the indies or what wasn't already known about her. Just because she gave an interview that reinforces your disdain for her doesn't mean that it has an affect on the moderates that span both parites.
I get it, people who support McCain or Obama look for the smallest article or single poll to justify their belief(s). But if you think one interview of the Vice-Presidential candidate is going to swing 5-6% of voters to Obama, your deluding yourself.
The point I was trying to emphasize in my post was that one single poll from one source doesn't equate change. It means diddly squat, escpecially when it's in the margin of error. That is certainly the case with the current CNN poll. Now if similar pollsters report the same result over the next few days, then there is definitely a swing and we can of course debate the reason. But one CNN poll doesn't mean the voters are running for Obama. Specifically when 6 polls (one of the a Democratic poll) covering the same time frame came to a different conclusion (all for McCain) http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … a-400.html
All I'm saying is people should be objective and not cream their pants when one poll says their candidate is winning. I don't want Obama to be my President, but that doesn't prevent me from recognizing when he is doing well and McCain is doing poorly. Furthermore, national polls mean shit as the electoral vote is what matters. And looking at the battleground states, as of now, McCain is in the better position as Obama's lead in his states has dropped the past few days and its dead even in the latest PA poll (the first time ever). I'm not saying Obama will lose PA (though if he does the election is over), but looking at it objectively, McCain is definitely in the better postion at this moment in time. This can all of course change in a matter of days and we still have two months left. However, the close we get to the election, the more solidified voters will be in their choice and the harder it will be for the candidates to sway them. Simply put, Obama has lost alot of support in the key states the past couple weeks. If he doesn't rebound and McCain takes MI or PA from Obama, the race is over. People love to be in the popular column and if the media starts reporting McCain is taking states from Obama, alot of "indies" will jump to the winning team. The same can be said if Obama makes a massive gain in Ohio or Florida.
Objectivity is all I ask for. You can be a cheerleader for your side, but at least have the foresight to look at the election objectively rather than through wishful glasses.
Re: Obama takes lead in polls
You must have missed all the objective threads about "McCain destroying Obama" http://www.gnrevolution.com/viewtopic.php?id=4374 when McCain was up in 1 poll by only 4%. Orthe one about "How Obama blew it". In fact, I made a similar point as to yours & was replied "You state your opinion, I state mine. That's how political forums work". I'll try and find the post if I have time. Found it, it's about a week old.
PaSnow wrote:James Lofton wrote:Off topic, where's all that change stuff that was ushering in a golden age??
Where is it?? It went flushed down the toilet when half this country decided to vote for the same people who ran this country for the last 8 years. More debt, more wars, more puppets.
On a serious note you post pretty pro-Republican here... and after seeing 8 new threads per day about pro-McCain/Anti-Obama it gets tired of seeing. McCain's only leading by about 3%, and who's to believe polls anyway, but even if the election were held today there's a decent chance Obama could & still would win, depending on the outcome of about 2 or 3 states. Plus the youth vote in polls in a huge obstacle because they all own cellphones as we saw when Obama came out of nowhere to win Iowa. Pollsters had to try to rearrange their demographics & math, they may have figured it out in Obama v Clinton, but who's to say it's the same with Obama v McCain. So this race is far from over. After seeing that interview, Palin needs alot of work before she enters the VP debate. To be honest, McCain definitely got a bump in polls after the RNC, but it peaked at about an average of 3%. As people tire, things change, and all it really comes down to are people are less interested in talking on the phone. It wouldn't really surprise me if for every 1,000 people polled, they actually call about 5,000 who just hang up. It wouldn't surprise me if it's 50/50 next week, or even if Obama's winning. And even then it's only mid-September. And what if Obama takes a lead, how is McCain going to catch up next time?? Run even dirtier ads, pick another woman for VP? He's pretty much out of ammo. You can call this race over as much as you want, I say it's just beginning.
You post anti McCain/Palin articles, I post the opposite. This happens at basically all forums where political discussion is allowed.
I'm being pretty objective, but seeing McCain up for almost 2 weeks after the RNC then for some reason Obama leading again makes me realize "something" happened. It isn't just a fluke when only 1 out of 8 RCP polls has McCain leading nowadays.
