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Re: Independents rejecting Obama in droves
While this is about the only stat I've seen that I'd say would be troubling to see, I do have to say that it's "Independents" not "Undecided" which I would think they are already included in the other polls which show McCain only leading by 1-3 points which will likely dwindle as time passes further away from the RNC.
Also, it may be somewhat of a kneejerk reaction to "Wow, someone new!! Great." yet as they realize she is an extreme right wing Republican, and alot of the truth about her & her background & record I would think some reconsider. But the bigger thing is that they are probably included in the national polls. So it's part of it, not in addition to it. Again, that big boost McCain had seemed to peak at only 3%, and now it's staying at that, probably go down in about a week as people tire.
Irregardless, it's certainly an interesting stat the Obama camp should & likely will be looking at.
Re: Independents rejecting Obama in droves
I think you're downplaying it, but at least you are willing to admit that its a troubling statistic. A 15 point lead over your opponent is huge among independents. If Obama had that lead over McCain, I'd already be calling him President.
Re: Independents rejecting Obama in droves
It was 49-39, advantage McCain back in April. It ebbs and flows based on news. He's on a high right now, like we've all seen, no doubt. No way to deny that.
But we haven't even gotten into October yet. This is the second quarter of a football game.
Re: Independents rejecting Obama in droves
I wouldn't worry about this too much. 'Droves' might be too strong of a statement.
Independents for Obama (i'm an Ind.) are down because lately he's been playing party lines. If he can get back to what he was in the summer, his approval will go up.
Re: Independents rejecting Obama in droves
Latest Newsweek Poll, Independant voters:
Obama 44%
McCain 43%
As I said, Independent voters are probably more likely to swing based on substance. After Palins interview it went downhill!!!
HUGE LOSS for McCain. HUGE. Also, avg of Newsweek & Gallup overall poll is McCain up only 1% (Newsweek tied, Gallup McCain 2%).
And 77% of Clinton supporters now support Obama.
Re: Independents rejecting Obama in droves
That or undecided, but in going from down 15% to up 1% shows they aren't buying into the Palin hype. If they're undecided they are only going to keep realizing Palin is reciting from 3x5 cards time after time. She keeps giving the exact same speech every time because she can't learn a new one and study for the VP debate too.
Re: Independents rejecting Obama in droves
A Newsweek poll isn't the same thing. Talk about twisting the issue in favor of your own candidate. Gallup is using a tracking poll on the specific poll cited in this thread. I know you know what a tracking poll is. When the new one comes out(I'm assuming in a few days), if Obama is up on that, then McCain can worry about independents.
A random Newsweek poll grabbed out of thin air that isn't the same poll used in this thread isn't the same thing as a Gallup tracking poll.
That would be like me doing a poll here asking do you like mayonnaise or mustard on your bologna sandwich. Then you do a poll asking what your favorite sandwich is, and then claim bologna sandwiches aren't popular. While you may have a point, its not the same thing.
This is one of the reasons I don't like polls. There's too many. Next election cycle, media should agree to all use the same polling statistics. Gallup/Rasmussen/etc. should all agree to merge or something.
