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Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
"Israel has said a strike on Iran will be "unavoidable" if the Islamic regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an atom-bomb." (London Daily Telegraph, 6/11/2008)
"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined President Bush on Wednesday in calling for further sanctions against Iran if it does not suspend its uranium enrichment program." Mr. Bush stressed again that "all options are on the table," which would include military force. (New York Times, 6/11/2008)
We are fast approaching the final six months of the Bush administration. The quagmire in Iraq is in its sixth painful year with no real end in sight and the forgotten war in Afghanistan is well into its seventh year. The "dead enders" and other armed factions are still alive and well in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan again controls most of that country. Gas prices have now reached an average of $4.00 a gallon nationally and several analysts predict the price will rise to $5.00-$6.00 dollars per gallon at the pump by Labor Day. This, despite assurances by some major supporters of the decision to invade Iraq that the Iraq war "will pay for itself" (Paul Wolfowitz) or that we will see "$20.00 per barrel" oil prices if we invade Iraq (Rupert Murdoch).
One thing the Pentagon routinely does (and does very well) is conduct war games. Top brass there are constantly developing strategies for conducting any number of theoretical missions based on real or perceived threats to our national security or vital interests. This was also done prior to the invasion of Iraq, but the Bush administration chose not to listen to the dire warnings about that mission given to him by Pentagon leaders, or for that matter, by his own senior intelligence officials. Nevertheless, war gaming is in full swing again right now with the bullseye just to the right of our current mess  Iran.
It's no secret that the U.S. is currently putting the finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iranian nuclear and military facilities. With our ground forces stretched to the breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan, none of the most likely scenarios involve a ground invasion. Not that this administration wouldn't prefer to march into the seat of Shiite Islam behind a solid, moving line of M1 Abrams tanks and proclaim the country for democracy. The fact is that even the President knows we can't pull that off any more so he and the neo-cons will have to settle for Shock and Awe Lite.
If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).
Will this military action stop Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a "Cake Walk" as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft.
Not even close.
If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner - including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.
That's just the opening act.
Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iran's newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.
The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their country's nuclear arsenal under their wings.
Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.
The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis  irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 - $300.00 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.
If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.
The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.
It doesn't get any worse than this.
Then the first Israeli bomber might drop its nuclear payload on Tehran.
David DeBatto is a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Special Agent, Iraqi war veteran and co-author the "CI" series from Warner Books and the upcoming "Counter to Intelligence" from Praeger Security International.
- Gunslinger
- Rep: 88
Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
That is an extremely disturbing read to say the least. While the outcome is obviously not written in stone it certainly is a scenario that can't simply be disregarded as sensationallism.
- Gunslinger
- Rep: 88
Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
...just wanted to add as BAD as NONE of us want another war at the same time we must face the reallity that if Iran has nukes it's a much more serious scenario than say North Korea. These morons believe that the way they "bring in" the beginning of their heaven is to cause as much bloodshed as possible. Whereas North Koreans don't want to die most of the Iranians with this insane belief would be more than happy to. They MUST not have nukes or we won't be debating how "evil America" shouldn't go to war because the world (what's left) will be nothing but chaos. We should have been doing something about Iran a long time ago.
- Communist China
- Rep: 130
Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
I don't want ground troops in there. Send the Navy, and bomb the shit out of them, but do not get entangled with a ground war.
- Gunslinger
- Rep: 88
Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
I don't want ground troops in there. Send the Navy, and bomb the shit out of them, but do not get entangled with a ground war.
Agreed. It may have to be done but our military is spread to thin. The only bad thing is even bombing the hell out of them probably isn't going to do it. They have tons of shit buried thousands of feet underground and protected by multi-layered concrete. It's a troubling situation to say the least.
Sickening to think about.
Amen to that.
Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
Send the Navy, and bomb the shit out of them, but do not get entangled with a ground war.
Why? So a third of our navy can be sunk courtesy of russian missiles? No thanks.
Need to send in all our B-2, B-1(Flagg, were these grounded?), and B-52 bombers and just pound the living shit out of them. Planes will be shot down though, but there's no way to prevent that. Navy should only be used for embargo purposes, defensive tactics, and to launch/refuel any fighter jets used in the airstrikes.
I agree about no ground troops though.
The oil market has to be stabilized right before and after such a strike though. If it cant be, then we cant go in there even if they have nukes. We'll just have to let Iran and the world know that if Iran does use a nuke, we are going to obliterate the entire Middle East region regardless of the massive casualties.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
I'm in the Army, so I don't know dick about bombers and jets. There will be no war with Iran, at least not as desribed in this doomsday scenario. Do any of you think for a second that America, England, France, Austrailia and Germany would let their economies fall? Any invasion would be a multilateral force ala WW2. I have no interest in going to Iran, but if the American people let us fight the war with victory in mind, we have the technology to destroy their most hardened bunkers (new bombs can penetrat the hardest stone and have a gas that is expelled once the bomb hits, which ignites and englufs everything inside the bunker/buildings in flames.
The American military would cut through the Iran military in a very short period. My concern would be how Russia and China respond. If we invade Iran, it will be WW3 and nothing short of that. Times will be hard, but the world and most importantly America, would come out stronger from it.
But I have aboslutelly no interest in going into Iran and being gassed and dying for some alleged threat. When and if it is evident Iran poses a nuclear threat, then by all means balls to the wall, but you better bring back the draft and make all the arm chair generals dodge bullets too.
P.S. In less than 2 months I'll be talking to you folks from the ME.
Re: An Iran Attack Scenario
P.S. In less than 2 months I'll be talking to you folks from the ME.
All the best.
I don't see us going to war with Iran either. Too much WW3 involved, only I don't see ANY other countries joining us in the fight (for better or worse, not that it's their fault). Plus you're right about Russia & China becoming factors.
