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- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events...
Because I'm bored and these maps can be fun. This is my hypothetical outcome if Harris goes with Josh Shapiro as her VP. Going with Shapiro would presumably move PA into the (D) column again, and would help pull Wisconsin and Michigan over as well. I don't think such a move is enough to have any impact on GA or NC, regardless of who is picked. NV and AZ seem especially Trump favorable with the immigration issue, so again, none help move those two from where they're at today. Maine has also been going towards Trump, but a moderate Democrat might help. I'm giving it to Harris, but think 1 of the extra EVs will firmly go to Trump. Every other state votes as it did in 2020. This puts us at no winner in the EV, so the House votes.
Re: Current Events...
You forgot Nebraska's one congressional district that has been going Dem for awhile. Other than that...I can see it happening...except my home state of Wisconsin would flip to Trump if 10k votes switch to Trump as compared to 2020.
Trump merely has to win one of the three (Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania) where as Kamala would have to win all 3. As I see it...those are the only states in play that matter as I do not see Georgia or AZ being in play with Kamala as the candidate.
Further cementing my view that Trump will win...midwestern men will not vote for a woman as noted in 2016. I'm talking about margins as high as 8-2 or 7-3 theyll go for Trump. Illinois being the only exception.
So yes...the question becomes how do we hold those 3 states if you you're Kamala.
Re: Current Events...
So we're a little under a week since Biden's drop out.
All we've gotten so far is Biden with a giant bruise on his face telling why he dropped out. Trump is pretty much who he's always been, ugly.
Is this going to be the most substance less clash of two presidential candidates ever? No debates (which admittedly has become worthless).
What a futile exercise this will all be.
Edit: also, Kamala is just automatically on the ballot.
Re: Current Events...
I find myself struggling to care about this election. Basically the Presidency is just a front now. Obviously Biden has not been running any real policy in the last 4 years, and Trump kept running into dead ends whenever he tried to do something. They could put Kamala in there and it would mean very little.
A strong President today would simply be a man who refuses to do some of the things the Washington Machine wants to do. He can not change anything. As we saw with Trump, it is apparently very easy to turn your own party against you if you start rocking the boat. Anybody holding high positions in government, military, intelligence is not going to risk their careers catering to a "rebel" President. That's how entreched the power structure has become in the West. Even if you wanted to do something it would be impossible.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events...
Kamala has all the momentum in the world right now...but why?! Not sure I understand.
I thought Trump was unstoppable.
Also, anyone notice how substance less 2024 campaigning has been? Not a word about policy. This is stupid.
Really? Walz is like the worst pick she could have made? MN was all but guarunteed, and he's ultra liberal. How is that going to help in AZ and PA, states most polls still show Trump leading in. This doesn't give her AZ or GA. I don't think it helps in either WI or MI. She needs to win all of these states to win the election, and after the initial shock of her nomination wears off, the polls are gonna continue to show what they have - she's losing in the battleground states. Maybe that will change, but the guy who stood by and watched as Minneapolis burned in 2020 isn't going to go over well with middle America. Kelly or Shapiro would have given her the edge she needs, Walz does none of that.
Re: Current Events...
mitchejw wrote:Kamala has all the momentum in the world right now...but why?! Not sure I understand.
I thought Trump was unstoppable.
Also, anyone notice how substance less 2024 campaigning has been? Not a word about policy. This is stupid.
Really? Walz is like the worst pick she could have made? MN was all but guarunteed, and he's ultra liberal. How is that going to help in AZ and PA, states most polls still show Trump leading in. This doesn't give her AZ or GA. I don't think it helps in either WI or MI. She needs to win all of these states to win the election, and after the initial shock of her nomination wears off, the polls are gonna continue to show what they have - she's losing in the battleground states. Maybe that will change, but the guy who stood by and watched as Minneapolis burned in 2020 isn't going to go over well with middle America. Kelly or Shapiro would have given her the edge she needs, Walz does none of that.
I'm just commenting on the alleged polls which could be meaningless..they all say she's winning everywhere.
Your comment about 'middle America' puzzles me a bit. Tim Walz is a governor in middle America.
I think and actually hope you're right. I don't want this stupid shit anymore. I dislike Trump vehemently...but Kamala?! Are you a woman? check. Are you a minority? Check. That's all the qualification you need. I'd be called a racist or sexist for saying this outloud.
I have dreaded November for at least a year. And I'm a total hypocrite for saying so...but I think I've voting for Trump.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events...
Randall Flagg wrote:mitchejw wrote:Kamala has all the momentum in the world right now...but why?! Not sure I understand.
I thought Trump was unstoppable.
Also, anyone notice how substance less 2024 campaigning has been? Not a word about policy. This is stupid.
Really? Walz is like the worst pick she could have made? MN was all but guarunteed, and he's ultra liberal. How is that going to help in AZ and PA, states most polls still show Trump leading in. This doesn't give her AZ or GA. I don't think it helps in either WI or MI. She needs to win all of these states to win the election, and after the initial shock of her nomination wears off, the polls are gonna continue to show what they have - she's losing in the battleground states. Maybe that will change, but the guy who stood by and watched as Minneapolis burned in 2020 isn't going to go over well with middle America. Kelly or Shapiro would have given her the edge she needs, Walz does none of that.
I'm just commenting on the alleged polls which could be meaningless..they all say she's winning everywhere.
Your comment about 'middle America' puzzles me a bit. Tim Walz is a governor in middle America.
I think and actually hope you're right. I don't want this stupid shit anymore. I dislike Trump vehemently...but Kamala?! Are you a woman? check. Are you a minority? Check. That's all the qualification you need. I'd be called a racist or sexist for saying this outloud.
I have dreaded November for at least a year. And I'm a total hypocrite for saying so...but I think I've voting for Trump.
Sure, in a dictionary Minnesota is part of the Midwest, but compare them to the rest of fly over country and along with WI, and MI, they're the outliers. Illinois would be red if not for Chicago. Prior to Trump in 16, we had to go back to Regan for any of these states to have voted for the GOP.
I've been dead wrong the past two elections, so even I don't put any weight in my own observation. But all the polls are saying the economy, immigration and crime are at the forefront of the electorate. The July jobs reports was horrific, we're at record inflation, and economists are throwing the R word around. The border is a fucking disaster and Harris was the Border Czar. Crime is the one area they have going for them as it has dropped 10% from where it's been the past few years. But again, Harris is the worst one to put out on that issue. Cause she is the one who bailed out rioters in Minnesota during the Floyd riots. She was the first one to "reimagine policing" when BLM and the far left were demanding to defund the police. And unfortunately, there is a lot of tape of Harris presenting herself as "woke". That was the one area Biden had some credit, because he's the guy behind the 93 crime bill and didn't support the defund movement in 2020.
Trump went on TV and said Harris wasn't a black woman. If any other person in any other universe said that, it'd be over. But nope, fucking kryptonite. Because as you already said and know from your lived experience in Chicago, people, but black people especially, know Harris has nothing in common with their heritage and story. People can smell bullshit and Harris is as fake, manufactured and insincere as they come. To say nothing of how interesting it is that the Democrats who profess to be the guardians of democracy and freedom against Trump (their words, not mine), just installed a candidate with zero discussion or debate with the public. It just happened without zero input from the electorate. And I have to believe that this fundamentally undemocratic and unamerican process is going to rub more than not the wrong way when they finally acknowledge that. And in that vein, I just don't see how two months from now people in PA, NV, GA and AZ are all of a sudden going to see Harris as the better candidate. Especially with WW3 being moments away from starting in both Israel and Ukraine. There's records to compare now, and one is objectively better than the other.
But, like I said earlier, I have been wrong the past two cycles and haven't voted for the winning candidate in 20 years. So the opposite of what I think is probably what's going to happen.
Re: Current Events...
Well explain the large boosts in the polls then. And the massive influx of donations to the Harris campaign. They seem to have the momentum, don't you agree?
Then again, Trump hasn't gone on offense yet. Kamala has said a lot of dumb shit. I just don't know if anything matters anymore. It's like we're voting on homecoming kind and queen. Policy and substance do not matter.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: Current Events...
She’s still losing in the BG states. And only 1 poll has shown her up in any of them. The odds still say Trump and if the election were held today he’d have 290+EVs. That’s what all the polls say at realclearpolitics.com
She got the surge in money because Biden’s dryed up and donors were withholding. Quick google search will confirm all that.
