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Re: Can Israel provide a proxy war with Iran?
Will Israel Attack Iran's Nuclear Facilities Before the End of the Bush Administration? Joschka Fischer Argues Yes
I had the pleasure to meet and speak at length over the weekend with Joschka Fischer, former Foreign Minister of Germany and one of the deepest geo-strategic thinkers in the world. He argued with me that - as he fleshed out in a a recent article he wrote for the Project Syndicate - Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of the Bush administration and that Israel effectively received the green light to this action from Bush during his recent visit to Israel. Fischer was recently in Israel to attend the celebrations for the 60th anniversary of Israel creation. A variety of factors and conversations - fleshed out in his article - have led him to the conclusion that Israel will attack Iran before the end of the Bush administration. This is just an opinion of one - however influential and well-connected - observer; but the arguments that Fischer makes on why Israel may go ahead sound compelling. We certainly don't know if Israel will act that early - and certainly Israel has signaled that it will not accept an Iran that is nuclear - but let us consider the economic and financial consequences of such action.
First, even before Iran may try to retaliate to this action by trying to block the flow of oil from the Gulf, oil prices would spike above $200 dollar a barrel.
Second, Iran could react militarily to such Israeli action (that would be taken with the tacit support and the military logistic support of the US) by unleashing its supporters in Iraq against the US military forces there. That would trigger a military reaction by the US that would start a sustained air-led bombing campaign against Iran's military capabilities (air force, anti-aircraft defenses, radar and other military installations, etc.)
Third, Iran would unleash its supporters in Lebanon and Gaza (Hezbollah and Hamas) in a military confrontation with Israel. A broader war will follow in the Middle East.
Fourth, Iran would use both the threat of blocking the flow of oil out of the Gulf and an actual sharp reduction of its exports of oil (an embargo) to spike the price of oil. Oil prices would rapidly rise above $200 per barrel and the US and global economy would spin into a severe stagflationary recession (like those triggered by the sharp spikes in the prices of oil following the staflationary shocks of the Yom Kippur war in 1973, the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990).
Fifth, while Sunni regimes may - in private - sigh relief following the destruction of the nuclear capabilities of the Shiite Iranian regime - the Sunni Arab street (the masses of poor Sunnis) from Algeria to Egypt and all the way to Pakistan, India and Indonesia may become even more anti-Western and anti-American leading to the risk over time of rise of anti-Western fundamentalist regimes in many Arab countries.
Sixth, the Bush administration whose hands have been tied by the new National Intelligence Estimate (that argued that Iran had suspended its program of development of nuclear weapons) would thus be able to strike Iran - via Israel - before the end of its term. Such October surprise by Israel would also certainly lead to the election of McCain and defeat of Obama as a national security crisis of such an extent would doom the chances of Democrats to win the White House. So both Israel - that prefers McCain to Obama and is hurried to act as it is wary of the constraints that an Obama presidency may put on its ability to act against Iran - and the Bush administration would guarantee the election of McCain.
Now, it is not certain - as argued by Fischer - that Israel will strike that early; this is just a guess and a prediction by one observer even if many others think likewise. But if such action were to be taken by Israel the consequences outlined above would be the clear outcome: a major global recession, wars throughout the Middle East (Iran, Iraq, Gaza, Lebanon, Israel, etc.) and a major increase in geopolitical instability.
Re: Can Israel provide a proxy war with Iran?
I do not think this will happen unless Obama's chances of becoming president rise from zero to slim. Not that we would attack just over an election, but the crisis would be put on the front burner in a have to case.
The world is eventually going to have to deal with Iran, whether diplomatically or militarily. It could be now, next year, or even drag it out into the next decade.
To answer the title of the thread, I think a proxy war involving Israel would lead to WWIII. The war will be a disaster for the whole world anyways, but placing Israel in the equation adds fuel to the fire.
If we must hit Iran, we're gonna need to do it alone.
Re: Can Israel provide a proxy war with Iran?
An attack has been in the works for years now. Luckily they've had some bumps in the road with the NS Estimate and the 'missing' nukes, but this just goes to show they're not giving up that easily.
So let's assume there will be war, at some point. Why?
The uranium and protection of Israel is a reason bordering on stupidity. Israel have between 150 and 350 second and third generation warheads. No rookie power is going to attempt anything there.
I can slightly buy the argumentation of 'one thing leads to another', but in light of cold war it should be clear that the whole world won't go 'commie', 'nukie' or whatever is the flavor of the day, just because a nation refuses to bend over for the West.
No, as usual I think the reason lies in the market. Iran is one of the last bastions not yet open to the Western money power. They had a good run between 1950-1980, but since then, with a war and one to spare, relations have been...difficult.
These are all old machinations, but this time we're facing an extremely volatile situation. A major uproar in the region would push oil Moon high with the long awaited depression to follow. That in turn would face the US with another dilemma; how do we pay for all of this? No doubt such a scenario would create some problems domestically as well as internationally. And with the US looking weak in a chaotic middle east the road is short to Russian and Chinese involvement in their spheres of influence.
I'm not necessarily saying WWIII, but at least a variation of the above scenario is almost bound to happen in the event of an attack.
The scary part is I think many men in power know this, and seemingly want this. It would be a very powerful 9/11 indeed. Imagine the future pretexts.
Re: Can Israel provide a proxy war with Iran?
People should be careful wishing for a conflict with Iran. Not saying you are, just a general statement. Like you said, a depression is likely and so is worldwide chaos. In the event of an imminent depression, the dollar gets dumped.
China will be in our nuclear sights if they attempt total abandonment of the dollar.
While Russia is a great power and is more of an overall threat than China, I think they will stay out of a Middle East war until they are absolutely forced into it.
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