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Re: A McCain landslide in November??
Conventional wisdom holds that this is a good year to be a Democratic presidential candidate. And many polls say that at least at this moment in time, either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama would get more votes nationally than Republican John McCain.
But The Politico writes this morning that "many top GOP strategists believe (McCain) can defeat Barack Obama -- and by a margin exceeding President Bush's Electoral College victory in 2004."
Politico's David Paul Kuhn reports that:
Some Republican strategists can envision a scenario in which Obama wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College -- he might galvanize Southern black turnout, for example, but still fail to switch a state in the region.
Among the 10 strategists interviewed by Politico for this story, there was near-uniform belief that had any other Republican been nominated, the party's prospects in November would be nil. ...
The case they make for a comfortable McCain win is not beyond reason. Begin with the 2004 electoral map. Add Iowa and Colorado to Obama's side, since both are considered states Obama could pick off. Then count McCain victories in New Hampshire and Michigan, two states where McCain is competitive. In this scenario, McCain wins the Electoral College 291-246, a larger margin than Bush four years ago.
If Obama managed only to win Iowa from Republicans and McCain managed only to win Pennsylvania, McCain would still win by a much greater margin than Bush '” 300-237.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
I'm actually starting to believe this kind of scenario can happen. I still believe McCain is one of the weakest presidential contenders in decades, but the inexperience of Obama is really starting to show.
McCain can win by default.
Alot of doubt is starting to take shape regarding an Obama presidency, and all the various gaffes coming out do not instill any confidence.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
that and the current democratic battle is really hurting the party
they should already be campaigning for the presidential election but obama and clinton are too busy fighting each other
McCain has played his hand very well(at the moment). What he is doing seems like something Reagan would have done if confronted with the same circumstances--choose which candidate you believe you can beat easier(Obama), and start talking like he is already the nominee even though he is not.
It makes Hillary look irrelevant and certainly plays a role in the increasing desire(even from those near Hillary) for her to drop out.
While the dems have a fistfight over the nomination, McCain is like a vulture waiting in the shadows. Its only May. If this much doubt is setting in over Obama now, what's it gonna be like in August? September?
McCain's VP choice may wind up being the most crucial part in this entire election. He makes a shitty choice, he could lose. Pick a winner, and he's the next president.
I think if he chooses Palin(woman governor in Alaska), the election is already over. She isn't being talked about much as a VP candidate, but people shouldn't be shocked if he picks her. She's popular in her state, attractive for an older woman, and would of course make history by being the first female VP. The trend folks who want to make history don't have to rely on an Obama or Clinton presidency.
Placing a woman in the republicans VP slot would change the dynamics of this election completely.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
Ok. Chill out here. McCain hasn't even begun to take ANY attacks from the Dems. Obama's flaws are being exposed now by Hillary. McCain's will be exposed in the last couple months of the campaign. He'll have less time to defend himself. Obama already has closed the case on the Wright controversy. He denounced him and said he doesn't agree with him. What's McCain gonna do? Bring it up again?
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
Obama is going to be hardpressed to win in Ohio and Florida. I see no way in which he'll take Florida. Ohio is a coinflip. I think McCain will take it as Ohioans won't respond well to Obama's liberal voting record, but it is certainly feasible he will take it. Clinton has done an amazing job of dividing the democratic party and alienating independents. McCain does better with independents and democrats than Obama does vice versa. Alot of this is becuase of Clinton. She has set herself up nicely for a 2012 job where she can claim that had she be ran in 2008, she'd have been the president.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
Ok. Chill out here. McCain hasn't even begun to take ANY attacks from the Dems. Obama's flaws are being exposed now by Hillary. McCain's will be exposed in the last couple months of the campaign. He'll have less time to defend himself. Obama already has closed the case on the Wright controversy. He denounced him and said he doesn't agree with him. What's McCain gonna do? Bring it up again?
The case hasn't been closed on Wright. The 527's are licking their chops just waiting to pounce. If the dems really think that Wright wont be brought up anymore, we might as well let McCain start living in the white house right now.
I don't think McCain will touch the Wright issue very much(if at all), but there are plenty of other people waiting in the wings to deal with it.
The only viable thing Obama can "expose" is McCain's ties to lobbyists, his apparent senility coming home to roost, and of course McCain's lack of understanding about the economy. Each of those things could backfire easily.
Obama is going to be hardpressed to win in Ohio and Florida. I see no way in which he'll take Florida. Ohio is a coinflip. I think McCain will take it as Ohioans won't respond well to Obama's liberal voting record, but it is certainly feasible he will take it.
He's definitely not winning Florida, and I'm not too sure about Ohio being a coin flip.
I was watching the news the other night, and they were showing the electoral college map and the various scenarios that can unfold. I think only one of those scenarios allows an Obama victory.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
I can see Obama winning the popular vote, but losing the electoral college. There is going to be alot of unrest within the democratic party as Clinton will continue to press on (on some valid reasons I believe) and even after she has withdrawn, the media and her supporters will continue to make an issue of it, keeping it on the public mind.
McCain made a point today that I think sums up my entire sentiment on Obama. Obama has not once visited Iraq and seen first hand what is happening there. He has desired a pullout and an admittance to defeat since the beginning. His total lack of military experience and knowledge make him a poor candidate to place as the commander in chief during a time of war that won't end anytime soon.
In the election, people are going to want to hear what has been done by each candidate, not what they plan to do. Obama may be found wanting here compared with McCain's nearly 50 years of public service.
James, I'd like to see what paths to the white house you saw on the news that could land Obama in the white house.
Re: A McCain landslide in November??
McCain made a point today that I think sums up my entire sentiment on Obama. Obama has not once visited Iraq and seen first hand what is happening there. He has desired a pullout and an admittance to defeat since the beginning. His total lack of military experience and knowledge make him a poor candidate to place as the commander in chief during a time of war that won't end anytime soon.
That is going to seal the deal for a McCain presidency.
This is a Carter-Reagan election all over again.
Who wants Carter?
Answer: Nobody.
Not comparing McCain to Reagan, just that the election is a bit similar. An old yet experienced candidate versus someone completely out of touch with reality. McCain isn't really entrenched in reality either, but enough considering who his competition is.
James, I'd like to see what paths to the white house you saw on the news that could land Obama in the white house.
I'm pretty sure that an Obama win almost requires a victory in Florida. Thats not gonna happen.
It was either on CNN or MSNBC where they showed the various scenarios. I'll check those sites later and see if they have pics of those maps.
