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Re: US Politics Thread
Depends on how you define take it seriously. Most people that get it are fine. Most people that get a bad case end up fine. A very small percentage (and nobody knows that number with such limited testing) die and the overwhelming majority of them have underlying health conditions.
I work from home anyway and don't get out of the house too often, but we did fly to Chicago in late February to visit my grandmother after my grandfather passed away...that was before all hell broke loose. I've been fighting allergies for weeks with highly elevated pollen levels. I've respected the social distancing and haven't gone out other than to go for walks or going to the grocery store. When I do both, I stay away from people. I'm a germaphobe, so I am always washing my hands. It's not out of the realm of possibility that I have the virus, but a weak case of it. I'm not coughing; I'm not sneezing nor do I have a runny nose. No headache, no fever, no anything really other than some difficulty breathing, which is most likely allergy related. Regardless, we stay home unless one of us needs to go to the store, and in that case it's me over my wife because of her underlying health issues. I think I'm taking it seriously; you may say because there's a small chance that I could have it I should be quarantined. If we're being honest, there's a small chance anyone could have it.
Here's your chance mitch...tell me I'm being irresponsible.
Re: US Politics Thread
Depends on how you define take it seriously. Most people that get it are fine. Most people that get a bad case end up fine. A very small percentage (and nobody knows that number with such limited testing) die and the overwhelming majority of them have underlying health conditions.
I work from home anyway and don't get out of the house too often, but we did fly to Chicago in late February to visit my grandmother after my grandfather passed away...that was before all hell broke loose. I've been fighting allergies for weeks with highly elevated pollen levels. I've respected the social distancing and haven't gone out other than to go for walks or going to the grocery store. When I do both, I stay away from people. I'm a germaphobe, so I am always washing my hands. It's not out of the realm of possibility that I have the virus, but a weak case of it. I'm not coughing; I'm not sneezing nor do I have a runny nose. No headache, no fever, no anything really other than some difficulty breathing, which is most likely allergy related. Regardless, we stay home unless one of us needs to go to the store, and in that case it's me over my wife because of her underlying health issues. I think I'm taking it seriously; you may say because there's a small chance that I could have it I should be quarantined. If we're being honest, there's a small chance anyone could have it.
Here's your chance mitch...tell me I'm being irresponsible.
Calling the Illinois governor a tool and then calling your opinion a fact is irresponsible. You never recognized my point, which is Trump is taking his lead from proactive governors NOW. For nearly three months he stuck his head in the sand. Now that IS a fact. If you're one of those that thinks the economy is more important than a pandemic, then we're never going to agree on anything.
Other than that you sound like youre taking all the precautions I'm taking.
Re: US Politics Thread
buzzsaw wrote:Depends on how you define take it seriously. Most people that get it are fine. Most people that get a bad case end up fine. A very small percentage (and nobody knows that number with such limited testing) die and the overwhelming majority of them have underlying health conditions.
I work from home anyway and don't get out of the house too often, but we did fly to Chicago in late February to visit my grandmother after my grandfather passed away...that was before all hell broke loose. I've been fighting allergies for weeks with highly elevated pollen levels. I've respected the social distancing and haven't gone out other than to go for walks or going to the grocery store. When I do both, I stay away from people. I'm a germaphobe, so I am always washing my hands. It's not out of the realm of possibility that I have the virus, but a weak case of it. I'm not coughing; I'm not sneezing nor do I have a runny nose. No headache, no fever, no anything really other than some difficulty breathing, which is most likely allergy related. Regardless, we stay home unless one of us needs to go to the store, and in that case it's me over my wife because of her underlying health issues. I think I'm taking it seriously; you may say because there's a small chance that I could have it I should be quarantined. If we're being honest, there's a small chance anyone could have it.
Here's your chance mitch...tell me I'm being irresponsible.
Calling the Illinois governor a tool and then calling your opinion a fact is irresponsible. You never recognized my point, which is Trump is taking his lead from proactive governors NOW. For nearly three months he stuck his head in the sand. Now that IS a fact. If you're one of those that thinks the economy is more important than a pandemic, then we're never going to agree on anything.
Other than that you sound like youre taking all the precautions I'm taking.
The Illinois governor is a tool. That wasn't an option. Trump isn't taking his lead from governors. You haven't been paying any attention, have you? As I said and you ignored, his job isn't the same as a governor's job. They have different responsibilities.
- Randall Flagg
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Re: US Politics Thread
I don’t like Trump using the guise of a Coronavirus update to boast about more security on the border. I get he can’t be optimistic when he knows 50k people are going to die in the next 3 weeks. But this is a distraction- a political one, and I can’t support that.
Re: US Politics Thread
Dr Frank has a scientific take on things, but you won't see anything about this in the mainstream media. I'm not sure his data is any better than anyone else's because bad data in means bad data out, but it seems he's been pretty spot on so far. It's okay to be optimistic.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________
"100,000+"
As you know, I am not listening to the news, nor reading the media. I am living and breathing the data. But there are many conversations going on here so I see things. And people send me PM's asking me questions (maybe five hundred today?). And my wife even came down to tell me what the president said. She was worried too. So I feel I must address it.
**Stick with the data.
**Stick with the math.
There are a few ways to think of this. Let's do a Fermi calculation.
1) As of today, the country has about 4,000 deaths. But we're peaking, or close to it. You can see it in the data. So double that = 8,000 deaths total for the country.
2) But let's assume bad stuff happens, and that the tail of the peak is twice as bad... 4,000 + 8,000 = 12,000 total deaths for the country. Hard to imagine that anything could as bad as New York, but there it is.
3) New York is the worst single situation in the country, everything else pales in comparison. New York is close to peaking. That projects to 3,500 deaths. But say I'm wrong, and it's twice that = 7,000 deaths.
Deaths in the rest of the country now exceed that of New York. But there are more variables. Let's say it's twice as bad as New York's doubled value = 14,000 deaths.
That's 14,000 + 7,000 = 21,000 deaths.
4) We're halfway through the epidemic. That's why Trump is saying he wants us to social distance until May 1. But let's say he's wrong, and double that. That means we are only 1/3 through the epidemic. 4,000 x 3 = 12,000.
So, now we do Fermi:
(8,000 + 12,000 + 12,000 + 21,000) / 4 = 13,250 deaths.
Some people prefer to use the geometric mean:
(8 x 12 x 12 x 21)^ 1/4 = 12,500 deaths.
These are at least reasonable numbers. Of course, we all hope they're really high. Seems like the models are tracking to something around 8k, but it is hard to tell with all these mini-spikes from nursing care facilities.
Now, think about that number, round it up to 15,000 to make the math easy. That is four New York Cities (projected deaths). Where are we going to find all those deaths?
We are already halfway through the epidemic, and the entire state of California is tracking to only 300 total deaths. No other state in the union has even broken three hundred yet, and only seven have broken 100. And many of the states have already peaked and are fading. Most of the breakout infections now are in rest homes (tragic), and there will be a lot of deaths from that, but those are limited populations. Not like a densely populated megalopolis.
And speaking of megalopolis, where is Los Angeles so far? They are the worst area in the state of California with a whopping 54 deaths.
100,000? Nah. It's an order of magnitude off.
Re: US Politics Thread
I don’t like Trump using the guise of a Coronavirus update to boast about more security on the border. I get he can’t be optimistic when he knows 50k people are going to die in the next 3 weeks. But this is a distraction- a political one, and I can’t support that.
Definitely a political/re-election move.
I'll say this tho, this Coronavirus isn't helping Biden either. Was there a rumor floating this was a ruse to get Cuomo back in the primary on brokered convention? He'd be a better nominee overall but not sure overriding the popular vote is the way for Dems to go about it.
Someone will run 3rd party. Bill Gates is in the back of my mind.
Re: US Politics Thread
mitchejw wrote:buzzsaw wrote:Depends on how you define take it seriously. Most people that get it are fine. Most people that get a bad case end up fine. A very small percentage (and nobody knows that number with such limited testing) die and the overwhelming majority of them have underlying health conditions.
I work from home anyway and don't get out of the house too often, but we did fly to Chicago in late February to visit my grandmother after my grandfather passed away...that was before all hell broke loose. I've been fighting allergies for weeks with highly elevated pollen levels. I've respected the social distancing and haven't gone out other than to go for walks or going to the grocery store. When I do both, I stay away from people. I'm a germaphobe, so I am always washing my hands. It's not out of the realm of possibility that I have the virus, but a weak case of it. I'm not coughing; I'm not sneezing nor do I have a runny nose. No headache, no fever, no anything really other than some difficulty breathing, which is most likely allergy related. Regardless, we stay home unless one of us needs to go to the store, and in that case it's me over my wife because of her underlying health issues. I think I'm taking it seriously; you may say because there's a small chance that I could have it I should be quarantined. If we're being honest, there's a small chance anyone could have it.
Here's your chance mitch...tell me I'm being irresponsible.
Calling the Illinois governor a tool and then calling your opinion a fact is irresponsible. You never recognized my point, which is Trump is taking his lead from proactive governors NOW. For nearly three months he stuck his head in the sand. Now that IS a fact. If you're one of those that thinks the economy is more important than a pandemic, then we're never going to agree on anything.
Other than that you sound like youre taking all the precautions I'm taking.
The Illinois governor is a tool. That wasn't an option. Trump isn't taking his lead from governors. You haven't been paying any attention, have you? As I said and you ignored, his job isn't the same as a governor's job. They have different responsibilities.
Ok now that Trump is parroting the tool Illinois governor...what does that make him?
The way i see it...the president didn’t lead so the governors had to choose for themselves. That’s why you have 20 different ways of dealing with the same thing.
Re: US Politics Thread
A governor (should) knows their state's needs better than the president. I can't think of a situation in our history where all fifty governors are going to the president all at once asking for the same help.
Trump is not a take the lead type of guy, especially when he wants to please everyone and get praise for it, while listening to Fauci. I think Newsome is doing a great job.
Re: US Politics Thread
A governor (should) knows their state's needs better than the president. I can't think of a situation in our history where all fifty governors are going to the president all at once asking for the same help.
New York City alone, according to the 2010 Census, has now become home to more than one million Asian Americans, greater than the combined totals of San Francisco and Los Angeles. New York contains the highest total Asian population of any U.S. city proper. - Wikipedia
Well, there's that. Surprises even me.
