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Re: US Politics Thread
Super Tuesday. After then, it should be just Bloomberg and Sanders in the race. No one save Biden can afford to stick around. Though I suspect he'll drop out after Super Tuesday unless he somehow manages to win a few states. At this point, Bloomberg should start winning nearly every state, supporting that narrative that Bloomberg bought his way in, and cheated Sanders out of the nomination. The only other outcome is for Biden to stay in through the convention, as it's unlikely any of them will win it outright. Then it becomes total chaos as the establishment has to decide in the safety and familiarity of Biden, the bankroll from Bloomberg (he's sinking money into Congressional races too), or keeping the 'woke' arm of the party at the table with Sanders. I haven't done the math yet nor seen anyone else doing it, but assuming Sanders gets half of the Super Tuesday states, and Biden/Bloomberg split the rest with Bernie in a close 2nd, I don't know how they get to the magic number. Every ad Bloomberg runs in states like Wisconsin and Michigan enrage one Sanders supporter for every moderate it convinces.
Is there any chance Bernie accepts a VP spot? How do we unify these people?
Would it matter at all if Bernie declared himself a Dem?
Illiinois' primary is in mid-March. I think...gun to my head...I'd pick Bloomberg today.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: US Politics Thread
So rather than do work this afternoon, I fucked around in excel and calculated votes up to Super Tuesday based on the latest polls from each state, or in the absence of that, using the aggregate of current national polling. So full disclaimer, this isn't going to 100% accurate, but it should give a 90% solution:
What we see is that Sanders should be well ahead of the other candidates 2 weeks from now, and the clear front runner. In order to get delegates, you have to get 15% of the vote in each state, which removes all but these 3 candidates in all but 1 or 2 states. Since these 3 won't get 100% of the vote, they'll receive the remaining delegates relative to their performance.
Although this won't happen for a myriad of reasons, I also made a projection based on performance up to Super Tuesday, and calculated how many delegates each nominee would have by the convention. None of them come close, though Bernie would be projected to be right around 1800, putting him 200 under the required amount. But as you see on the bottom, if Bloomberg or Biden drop out, and give their delegates to the other, it puts them above the 1991 needed to win at around 2150. I don't think any of them can get to 1991 outright, so either a brokered convention, or Biden or Bloomberg give their delegates to the other, putting them ahead.
Re: US Politics Thread
Mitch interesting thought about Bernie as VP. I dont see it happening tho. He went too far in his life being some radical, this would close it out by joining a Wall St financial billionaire. I dont even think he wants vp that bad. Also dont think Bloomberg would choose him, except for the unity & vote totals
Bloomberg is make or break tonight Flagg good insight into possibilities if Bloomberg doesnt dominate early on it could be a split convention. Best hope is Klobuchar does really well tonight and goes far, and while she may not win it (barring a stellar run), shed be a good veep nod for Bb, but needs to bring some supporters & name rec.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: US Politics Thread
Mitch interesting thought about Bernie as VP. I dont see it happening tho. He went too far in his life being some radical, this would close it out by joining a Wall St financial billionaire. I dont even think he wants vp that bad. Also dont think Bloomberg would choose him, except for the unity & vote totals
Bloomberg is make or break tonight Flagg good insight into possibilities if Bloomberg doesnt dominate early on it could be a split convention. Best hope is Klobuchar does really well tonight and goes far, and while she may not win it (barring a stellar run), shed be a good veep nod for Bb, but needs to bring some supporters & name rec.
Sanders is unlikely to be the VP for a multitude of reasons. Primarily is he wouldn't play ball - do you see him doing a 180 on some positions and saying "My good friend Mike is one of the good billionaires, and his ideas on social security, health care, and student loans have made me realize mine were too extreme." He'd be called a sell out and his supporters would revolt. He's an outsider, so no one is going to pick them to be on their team. The clear VP pick is Harris. I can't Bloomberg or Biden picking anyone else but her. They need the black and "woke" vote, and she has appeal to at least half of that. Her treatment of black criminals as the AG is no worse than comments or actions made by either of them. She'd play ball, knowing she was next in line for 2024/8. Warren wouldn't do that, she'd want to make waves and pitch policy that went against the President's priorities, just like Sanders would. Klobuchar appeals to no one, so she isn't even in contention.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: US Politics Thread
If the democratic voters watch tonight’s debate, Bloomberg is toast. No way the base rallies behind him.
