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Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
they have a thing on CNN where you can play with the sliders to see who will win and hilary basically needs to take the remaining states by a 60/40 margin...which i doubt will happen...i agree with James she should pack it in
here check it out
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
Yeah, even though she won, its like being in the 4th quarter down by 24 with 5 minutes to go. Sure, you can still win but its not likely.
One of them has to drop out soon because McCain is gaining traction. When four more years of Bush is being considered acceptable to the american people, its time for the dems to call a truce and back one candidate.
McCain can be destroyed in a general election, but they are actually helping him by dragging this shit out.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
I don't get why you all think Obama should be the one to leave. Obama has the least chance of winning in the general election. He has yet to win any battleground states. Hillary has won them all. Doesn't that mean anything to you? Obama loses to McCain in almost every battleground state. It's not as if Obama has the nomination locked up either, he can't get the numbers to win. If and when they count Florida and Michigan (which they should) his numbers would be even smaller. Obama won in caucus states, which don't reflect the true numbers in normal voting. His numbers are inflated.
There was a time when I wanted Clinton to win cause I knew McCain could beat her up, but I'm not so sure now. However, I have no doubt that if Obama gets the nod McCain will win both Florida and Ohio and Obama will be forced to sing his songs of hope with Wright in the senate.
Hillary will not serve as a VP to Obama, she's going to take this to the convention because the Super Delegates are interested in winning the election, not rooting like it's a football game. Obama has not given any indication he can win in the general election. 3x as many Democrats jump to McCain than vice versa in a McCain to Obama matchup. That is a pretty big deal considering many of you were calling Obama the big uniter.
If Democrats want to win the election in 2008, they better nominate Clinton. I have a feeling this will happen anyway as the super delegates will go with what is best for the party and not some utopian message.
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
I do agree that whatever aura of invincibility that Obama may have had is gone now. People have now seen things, and its not pretty. Had all that shit come out months ago, he never would have even made it to the Iowa Caucus.
If the economy was booming, regardless of this war I believe a republican could win. This election is going to be about the economy, and McCain will lose simply by default. He couldn't beat a corpse in a general election.
However, I do agree that the dems cant win without Ohio. Nothing special about Ohio, but its one of those states that statistically you HAVE to win to get the presidency.
The reason I advocate Hillary dropping out is because she is so damn polarizing. Now though, Obama is just as polarizing as she is but for different reasons.
Its a clusterfuck no matter what. I do think for the sake of the party one of them needs to drop out, and since Hillary is currently in 2nd regarding delegates, it would be her.
Obama is fucked in the midwest and south if its him vs McCain in the general. I don't think McCain will beat either one, but Obama will have to win every single large state in the nation and grab a couple upsets.
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
For starters, I vote for and care about January, not November. Call me what you will, but I care about who I'd want as President. Secondly, I know you can't look at polls in April for what will occur in November, it's way too early.
I do agree Obama is losing a bit of his aura. He continues to talk about change, & a new Washington etc. I went down to see him last Friday & I do have to say, I was a bit underwhelmed. Just spoke about change, typical stories about a working class guy who couldn't fill up his gas tank. That's the same thing Hillary says. He's starting to say things (fight for America, bring back jobs to the US, reduce big lobbyist etc) that Hillary says. He needs to seperate himself more, and come up with REAL ideas and initiatives. Otherwise, they're basically the same candidate.
Supposedly, the talk is he wouldn't want her as his VP, but she would agree to have him as hers (if the superdelegates advised it). IMHO, here's how I think it'll go down. The rest of the states are as expected, OBama wins the delegate and popular vote, as a result, the super delegates decide to side with Obama. Clinton accepts this and backs him. Obama selects someone else as VP, possibly Ed Rendell (a big Clinton supporter to keep the Clinton vote, and help win Ohio due to proximity & similar situation). He's a good campaigner and politician too. Fast Eddy.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
McCain polls just as well if not better than Obama when it comes to the economy. You continually assert that Republicans are to blame for our economic woes and that the Dems can fix them, but you have not provided a reason why. You're entitled to your opinion, but McCain won't lose by default on the economy as he actually polls a little better on the issue than either Democrat.
Obama won't win the big states, McCain will. Obama may pull off a win in PA and MI, but that will be just keeping the status quo. He needs to win Florida or Ohio. Florida is McCain country, neither Hillary or Obama has any chance there. Ohio is what will decide the election as was the case in 2004. Obama's message does not resonate with Ohioans. The beating he's taken from Hillary is nothing compared to the beat down the GOP will give him. If all this stuff has come out by debating someone who doesn't want to annihilate her oppopnent, imagine what will come out when the Republicans start.
Don't believe me? Look at the battleground states and who has historically and who is polling the best there. All questions will be answered then.
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
The beating he's taken from Hillary is nothing compared to the beat down the GOP will give him. If all this stuff has come out by debating someone who doesn't want to annihilate her oppopnent, imagine what will come out when the Republicans start.
By the same token McCain isn't even taking a beating yet and he still doesn't have a lead. He is only tied or just barely leading and doesn't even have an opponent yet. Imagine when the fight starts, it'll only be downhill from there. Again Randall, quit using April polls to base your November prediction.
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
Are we going in circles? Polls don't mean shit right now. I don't care what the percentage is vs Obama or Hillary, the numbers are fucked up because both of them are still in the race. Hoover's corpse could run and he would probably have similar numbers as McCain, simply because there is no clear cut competition yet.
When the dems have an actual nominee and these poll numbers you carry like Moses and his tablets are still ringing true, then I'll agree that McCain has a legit shot.
As far as your comments regarding various battleground states, I agree. The dems have to secure Ohio, and on election night we're probably gonna know who the president is before the polls close on the west coast.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: so clinton is gonna win PA
I'm not saying polls are absolute. But you can't dismiss them because the Dems don't have a nominee yet. The polls place McCain against Obama and Clinton seperately, not all together. So I don't see your point.
Your appoint about Obama and Clinton not focusing on McCain rings true, but McCain hasn't been campaigning for 2 months. All attention has been on Hillary and Barack. Furthermore, McCain has a much larger record in both experience and running for office. Needless to say, Obama won't be able to get away with his ambiguity once he has a head to head with Obama.
But none of you have addressed my original point. Why Obama over Hillary if she is putperforming him in the states that matter? Obama can win the Idahos and South Carolinas every day that ends in "Y" during the primary, but he'll never win them in November. Clinton is winning the important states. So if you want a Democrat in office, why would you support the guy who can't even unite his own party in the battleground states, let alone the man who has 3x as many of his own people jumping ship to the other guy?
