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Re: US Politics Thread
New Fox Poll shows Clinton lead over Trump is down to 3.... This race IS NOT over.
Definitely not. I expect it to get closer. That said, Fox polls lean GOP. Nate Silver calls that a 4-point lead. Other national polls today give Clinton leads of 14, 10, 6, 4 and 2 points. The real lead is probably right there on the middle at 6. That is an enormous lead at this stage.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
Hasn't the Fox News poll been pretty accurate? So we should trust a CNN pole but not a Fox?
Re: US Politics Thread
I really only take 538 seriously.
Here's what they said: "Trump’s share of the vote has increased, as he’s picked up undecided and third-party voters, probably as the result of Republicans’ returning home after a disastrous series of weeks for Trump this month. Clinton, however, is at least holding steady and probably also improving her own numbers somewhat.
Consider one of the worst polls of the day for Clinton: Monmouth University’s poll of New Hampshire, which gave Clinton a 4-percentage-point lead, down from a 9-point lead in Monmouth’s previous poll of New Hampshire in mid-September. But the poll didn’t really show Clinton’s vote declining (she fell only from 47 percent of the vote to 46 percent). Instead, the shift was primarily because Trump increased his vote share from 39 percent to 43 percent, having taken his votes from Gary Johnson and the undecided column.
One of Trump’s worst polls, conversely, was a Suffolk University national poll that showed Clinton beating him by 10 points1 — up from a 7-point lead in Suffolk’s previous national poll in late August. And yet, Trump didn’t actually lose any ground in the Suffolk poll, improving to 38 percent of the vote from 35 percent before. It’s just that Clinton zoomed up further, improving to 47 percent from 42 percent.
We can also see this pattern in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average. Clinton’s currently at 46.0 percent, which is her highest number on the year and up by 0.6 percentage points from a week ago, when she was at 45.4 percent just before the third presidential debate. Trump, meanwhile, is at 39.6 percent in national polls. That’s not a great number but is also improved — he was at 38.8 percent a week ago."
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
If you take out the real high Hillary outliers it is a 3 point race. 3-4 is probably the real number.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
Smoking Guns wrote:If you take out the real high Hillary outliers it is a 3 point race. 3-4 is probably the real number.
Tbh, I don't really think it's close at all. That's just my feeling.
Just telling you the poll. You have 2 at double digits and everyone else is in that 2-6 range.
Re: US Politics Thread
Smoking Guns wrote:New Fox Poll shows Clinton lead over Trump is down to 3.... This race IS NOT over.
National polls mean nothing
This. The state polls and the early voting patterns are more illuminating. Here's an anecdote from a republican candidate running for congress in NV:
Re: US Politics Thread
misterID wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:If you take out the real high Hillary outliers it is a 3 point race. 3-4 is probably the real number.
Tbh, I don't really think it's close at all. That's just my feeling.
Just telling you the poll. You have 2 at double digits and everyone else is in that 2-6 range.
The national polling average has Clinton at +5.4%. Which makes sense to me.
Re: US Politics Thread
mitchejw wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:New Fox Poll shows Clinton lead over Trump is down to 3.... This race IS NOT over.
National polls mean nothing
When it shows Trump +13 with independents it does.
That would be good for him. Do you have a link? I'd like to delve deeper. Could be a suspect poll. i've yet to hear anything that big.
