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- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
Primary voting has been an accurate predictor of elections since 1912.
Pollux, keep fighting the good fight my brother.
Bigbri, Trump won't harm you, "I can tell you that"...
Re: US Politics Thread
The fact that almost every poll is oversampling democrat heavy groups is the meaty supporting evidence. .
Not it most certainly is not. Dude this has been explained to you in this thread a few times already. Why do you keep doing this?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the … ing-badly/
The basic premise of the unskewers is wrong. Most pollsters don’t weight their results by party self-identification, which polls get by asking a question like “generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a….” Party identification is an attitude, not a demographic. There isn’t some national number from the government that tells us how many Democrats and Republicans there are in the country. Some states collect party registration data, but many states do not. Moreover, party registration is not the same thing as party identification. In a state like Kentucky, for example, there are a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, but more voters identified as Republican in the 2014 election exit polls.
A person’s party identification can shift, and therefore the overall balance between parties does too. Democrats have typically had an advantage in self-identification — a 4 percentage point edge in 2000, a 7-point advantage in 2008 and a 6-point edge in 2012, according to exit polls — but they had no advantage in the 2004 election. Since 1952, however, almost every presidential election has featured a Democratic advantage in party identification.
Re: US Politics Thread
polluxlm wrote:Primary voting has been an accurate predictor of elections since 1912.
Pollux, keep fighting the good fight my brother.
Bigbri, Trump won't harm you, "I can tell you that"...
I was typing too fast, and I missed a "perceived." Oh well.
I work in the media, though, so I wouldn't be so sure.
Re: US Politics Thread
misterID wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:They are high ONLY because the country is so divided over the election so by comparison to the election OBAMA seems okay and he hasn't done shit for the past year really...
These excuses are not only flimsy but childish. The Obama hate is so thick no one wants anything good to be associated with Obama, even approval polls. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but his approval ratings were good before the election.
He is a nice guy, just not a good pres.
Syria, failure
ISIS, Failure
Iraq, Failure
Afghanistan, Still ThereGot Osama, Highlight, but his admin delayed that per the movie
Obama Care, failure
Extremely slow recovery
Chicago, failure
Race Relations, very poor under him, the.Nation has become more divided with a large part of that due to his justice department
Fast and Furious scandal
Benghazi
Black Lives Matter
These are all right wing talking points by letter head. Come on, you're better than that. But you're saying he's responsible for creating Black Lives Matter? Sorry, but any destabilization in the middle east is a product of the worst clusterfuck in American history, why you peg that on him is beyond me. We do not have occupation military force and we can't control the way the middle east governs itself and collapses anymore. You even had to give an asterisk for getting Bin Laden, based on a movie. More people have insurance than ever before, the economy is recovering from what he inherited, he hasn't been in Chicago for 8 years. The rest is just nonsense, it really is.
He is not perfect by any means, but the cartoon Satan you guys try and draw him as is stupid. And the "nice guy" thing is absolutely the equivalent of the racist denying he's a racist because he has "that black friend" or my neighbor is a black guy and "you should hear what he says about Obama!"
Re: US Politics Thread
You seem like a really angry bloke today.
You're the one that threatened me with Haystacks Calhoun.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
polluxlm wrote:The fact that almost every poll is oversampling democrat heavy groups is the meaty supporting evidence. .
Not it most certainly is not. Dude this has been explained to you in this thread a few times already. Why do you keep doing this?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the … ing-badly/
The basic premise of the unskewers is wrong. Most pollsters don’t weight their results by party self-identification, which polls get by asking a question like “generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a….” Party identification is an attitude, not a demographic. There isn’t some national number from the government that tells us how many Democrats and Republicans there are in the country. Some states collect party registration data, but many states do not. Moreover, party registration is not the same thing as party identification. In a state like Kentucky, for example, there are a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, but more voters identified as Republican in the 2014 election exit polls.
A person’s party identification can shift, and therefore the overall balance between parties does too. Democrats have typically had an advantage in self-identification — a 4 percentage point edge in 2000, a 7-point advantage in 2008 and a 6-point edge in 2012, according to exit polls — but they had no advantage in the 2004 election. Since 1952, however, almost every presidential election has featured a Democratic advantage in party identification.
Yes we know there are more democrats. Obama had +7. These polls are way exceeding that, and it has been increasing. They're also oversampling women and college grads.
This is just Reuters:
You can chalk it anyway you like, these oversamples are in no way a true picture and they are not random. You don't think they are cooked? When "scientific polls" have a 15 point variance they either don't know what they are doing or they are skewing the result.
We'll see which ones are which.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
Smoking Guns wrote:misterID wrote:These excuses are not only flimsy but childish. The Obama hate is so thick no one wants anything good to be associated with Obama, even approval polls. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but his approval ratings were good before the election.
He is a nice guy, just not a good pres.
Syria, failure
ISIS, Failure
Iraq, Failure
Afghanistan, Still ThereGot Osama, Highlight, but his admin delayed that per the movie
Obama Care, failure
Extremely slow recovery
Chicago, failure
Race Relations, very poor under him, the.Nation has become more divided with a large part of that due to his justice department
Fast and Furious scandal
Benghazi
Black Lives Matter
These are all right wing talking points by letter head. Come on, you're better than that. But you're saying he's responsible for creating Black Lives Matter? (He took the side of Michael Brown before he knew the facts) Sorry, but any destabilization in the middle east is a product of the worst clusterfuck in American history, why you peg that on him is beyond me (his goal was to vacate as fast as possible and claim not to be a hawk, by doing that it created a vacuum and guess what, WE ARE BACK AGAIN). We do not have occupation military force and we can't control the way the middle east governs itself and collapses anymore. (Yes, but then why are we there again if we can't control anything.) You even had to give an asterisk for getting Bin Laden, (well he gets credit for being talked into taking him out, but he loses points because they waited a long ass time, could have taken him out earlier) based on a movie. More people have insurance than ever before (the other folks are paying more now than ever, ask Bill Clinton), the economy is recovering from what he inherited (at a snails pace, very slow recovery), he hasn't been in Chicago for 8 years (but his boy Rahm Emmanuel has been and 3,000 people have been shot this year, in a city with strict gun laws). The rest is just nonsense, it really is.
He is not perfect by any means, but the cartoon Satan you guys try and draw him as is stupid. And the "nice guy" (he is a cool dude just in over is head...) thing is absolutely the equivalent of the racist denying he's a racist because he has "that black friend" or my neighbor is a black guy and "you should hear what he says about Obama!"
I put my comments in () above.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: US Politics Thread
Even RICHARD FUCKING ENGEL of NBC says the timing of the Mosul attacks seems to be political because Isis and Syria will likely be the biggest failures of the Obama administration.
Tell me about his foreign policy?
ISIS, RUSSIA, Iran... look at his former claim to victory in Yemen.. what a joke!!
