You are not logged in. Please register or login.
- Topics: Active | Unanswered
Re: US Politics Thread
Polls oversampling dems, women and now college degrees.
This is what it will come down to:
In NC first day early voting, Dems down 11%, Reps down 7% but Inds UP 28% from 2012. That's the Monster Vote coming out for Trump!
Any polling modeling itself on the 2012 election is in for a rude awakening.
Where is that crazy quote from? Hillary is leading or is very close among independents in most polls. And she leads virtually every other group of voters. That math doesn't add up.
What the early indications actually show is Clinton benefitting from early voting.
Re: US Politics Thread
Here is my 270-to-win map, using RCP state averages. Margin of error is generally 3-4%. I only give a state to a candidate if they are at +4 or higher.
As you can see there are a few "toss up states" left on the map. But even with that, Hillary already has it locked down.
A few things to note:
NC is trending Clinton + 2.5 with her winning all recent state polling. I'd imagine the likelihood of her picking that state up is high.
AZ has been trending Clinton over the last couple of polls (+5 and +2) , but her average is only +1.3 at this point. Could she really take AZ? It certainly looks like a possibility.
UT is within margin of error, but I'd imagine McMullin gets the Beehive state before Clinton. Either way, Trump may not get the EVs.
Alaska too was within margin of error.
Lets say that Trump won every single toss up state on this map. He would still lose, falling 40 EVs short.
More than likely Hillary will pick up NC and OH, putting her around 341. If she can get AZ that would put her at 352.
Re: US Politics Thread
CNN? Of course they don't mention that democrats always push for early voting and has been leading pubs on that for years. The amount of voters relative to last election though is advantage Trump. And he wins independents big in any honest polling, which shouldn't come as a surprise. He is the enthusiasm candidate. Even a cynic like me is rooting for him.
Quote is from here: https://twitter.com/mitchellvii?lang=en
Re: US Politics Thread
The amount of voters relative to last election though is advantage Trump.
The numbers says the exact opposite thus far, except in Iowa.
And he wins independents big in any honest polling,
Says who? What polls?
Quote is from here: https://twitter.com/mitchellvii?lang=en
Of course it is...
Re: US Politics Thread
Pat Caddell: ‘Polling Is All Over the Place… Shock Potential Is Enormous’
Pollster and analyst Pat Caddell discussed recent presidential election polling on Friday with Breitbart News Daily SiriusXM host Alex Marlow, saying, “Something is going on in this country in these polls.”
“All of the tracking polls keep holding at Trump being ahead,” he continued. “And then all of these other polls that are one-off polls, or whatever … I don’t know how they’re doing some of these university polls. You just put the name of some university and apparently it becomes credible, whether they know what they’re doing, or not.
Caddell was pointing out the discrepancy between the different types of polls. “But in any event, polling is all over the place…. Something isn’t adding up,” said Caddell.
“Something is going to happen here, I just sense it,” he concluded. Either “Hillary will glide into the White House, or we’re headed for one of the greatest shocks in American politics. I think it’s a very close call. I think the shock potential is enormous.”
Re: US Politics Thread
Even a cynic like me is rooting for him.
Ah, now I get it. You think that if EVEN a cynic like you supports him, other independents surely must too... of course, it might just as well be the case that it takes a very special kind of cynic to support him, no?
Re: US Politics Thread
“Something is going on in this country in these polls.”
"Something isn’t adding up,”
“Something is going to happen here, I just sense it,”
Yes, those are definitely the words of someone who has done diligent scientific research... 
“Hillary will glide into the White House, or we’re headed for one of the greatest shocks in American politics”
Clever guy you are quoting here pollux, those are litterally the only two options...
Re: US Politics Thread
This thread becomes so circular after a while.
Polling showed Trump trouncing the GOP primary field. It was quite accurate.
Polling now shows Hillary beating Trump. This also includes internal polling from the Republican party.
But now somehow this information is "skewed" and we're also not accounting for other factors. Give me a break.
Clever guy you are quoting here pollux, those are litterally the only two options...
haha, this reminds me of a stock market analyst I read a few years ago. He predicted the market would either go up, or could possibly go down. Genius I tell ya!
Re: US Politics Thread
polluxlm wrote:Even a cynic like me is rooting for him.
Ah, now I get it. You think that if EVEN a cynic like you supports him, other independents surely must too... of course, it might just as well be the case that it takes a very special kind of cynic to support him, no?
If it took my kind of cynic he'd be polling less than 1%. He's got the support of tens of millions of Americans. And there's a bunch of polls showing him beating her by 20 points with independents. But that was like 3 weeks ago right, so that's all gone now? You go ask a real pollster how statistically likely that is. Trump has been the independent choice from the start. That won't change, not for Hillary Clinton.
Re: US Politics Thread
pollux what do you think about the video I posted from 2008?
Do you think it was chemtrails by the Lizard people forcing Trump at the time into saying those things? CGI, mind control, MI5, the Illuminati?
