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Re: US Politics Thread
Is Chris Hayes the young guy on MSNBC? He's a Manahattanite douche. He wouldn't know jack & MSNBC is worthless. Fivethirtyeight has it at 86% - 14%. That's all we need to pay attention to right now. Statistically speaking, that's an impossible odds to overcome.
Re: US Politics Thread
Remember, Chris Hayes did a male only poll a few weeks back and Trump was up 80-20. The ONLY reason this is close is the women vote. But I think the women vote is skewed.
Source? Methodology?
Trump does not have the support of a silent majority, it is the exact opposite: it is a very vocal minority that props up his candidacy. That's why he draws huge crowds at his rallies but Hillary is miles ahead of him in the polls. This isn't surprising either: all statistics seem to support the idea that the US is rapidly becoming more progressive and more socially liberal. Both as far as party affiliation is concerned, as well as support for individual policies there are strong indications that the majority of the country is just as leftist as Canada or even Europe: Abortion, same-sex marriage, legalization of marijuana, rapid rise of irreligion, increased regulatory oversight, ... to name just a few issues where left-wing policies seem to have opened up an unrecoverable lead over their right-wing counterparts.
Trump's candidacy is a symptom of this, it represents the last convulsions of a way of thinking (sexist, isolationist, racist, ...), belief system, way of life, whatever... that is very clearly on its way out. As every new generation is exposed to an increasingly pluralistic society, conservatism will naturally fall to the wayside.
This is currently more true for national policy than it is for foreign policy, since there's still a lot of fear in the populace's hearts left over from the cold war era and all the fear mongering that was done to prop up the economy by stoking the war-machines, but one will follow the other eventually.
This is a good article on the subject (although it is too complimentary towards Obama in my opinion, I would say his presidency is a result of that process, not an instigator or accelerant): http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc … ft/419112/
Re: US Politics Thread
Cramer wrote:Raw votes?
Won't even be close. Give me some of what you guys are smokin'.
I haven't smoked in over ten years, but I'm thinking about vaping some crippy. Maybe I should find SG's guy... Then again, I don't want to wake up with tiny hands and a massive inferiority complex.
Shockingly enough(!), SG doesn't toke. I floated the idea to him a while back & was met with upmost pious disdain for the practice.
Shockingly enough, I love it.
Tho I've been sober & clean from anything stronger than caffeine for nearly a month now. I'm not proud of that, just making conversation. I miss it all terribly. But things had gotten out of control in august & September. Scared myself straight to be honest. Can't trust myself any longer sadly. Anyway this is all well fuckin off topic.
Re: US Politics Thread
misterID wrote:Cramer wrote:Raw votes?
Won't even be close. Give me some of what you guys are smokin'.
I haven't smoked in over ten years, but I'm thinking about vaping some crippy. Maybe I should find SG's guy... Then again, I don't want to wake up with tiny hands and a massive inferiority complex.
Shockingly enough(!), SG doesn't toke. I floated the idea to him a while back & was met with upmost pious disdain for the practice.
Shockingly enough, I love it.
Tho I've been sober & clean from anything stronger than caffeine for nearly a month now. I'm not proud of that, just making conversation. I miss it all terribly. But things had gotten out of control in august & September. Scared myself straight to be honest. Can't trust myself any longer sadly. Anyway this is all well fuckin off topic.
My only vice now is literally a small latte from Dunkin Donuts and I'm on the internet bitching about politics. Now that's sad. I was never a drinker but I do miss grass. It would have mad this election more fun.
He may not burn, but I bet SG has an awesome collection of STD's.
Re: US Politics Thread
Maybe I shouldn't say this John, but I haven't noticed any difference at all. 
Voters diverge from media, keep Trump ahead
Voters on Friday diverged from the legacy media messaging that created a firestorm over GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump’s doubts whether he would accept the results of the 2016 election, keeping him ahead in polling, including a “substantial lead” among independents.
Real Clear Poltiics reported the IBD-TIPP tracking poll had Trump leading 41 percent to 40 percent, Rasmussen reports had Trump up 43-41 and the L.A. Times/USC Tracking had Trump ahead 45-44.
Only if one would assume that third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein would be removed from the ballot is Clinton ahead of Trump, then by a 43-41 margin, the surveys show.
The analysis of the IBD polling, which is a national poll of 789 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, explained that voters seemed unmoved by the mainstream media’s outrage over Trump’s statement that he would keep Wednesday night debate’s moderator “in suspense” about whether he would accept the results.
“Wednesday’s lively presidential debate featured a comment by Donald Trump to a question from Fox News moderator Chris Wallace, who asked whether Trump would respect the results of the Nov. 8 election if he feels the vote was fraudulent or ‘rigged.’
Sign the precedent-setting petition supporting Trump’s call for an independent prosecutor to investigate Hillary Clinton!
“‘I’ll look at it at the time,’ Trump said. He added, ‘I’ll keep you in suspense.’
“‘Hillary called Trump’s words ‘terrifying,'” IBD commented.
“Yet, despite a media and political uproar over Trump’s comments – the New York Times’ piece Thursday ran under the headline ‘Donald Trump Vs. American Democracy,’ while the Huffington Post’s shouted ‘Trump’s Shocking Answer On Respecting Election Results Is The Only Debate Moment That Matters’ – voters didn’t appear to agree. The IBD/TIPP poll showed little if any erosion in Trump’s support.”
The analysis pointed out that the answers about economic policy, immigration, guns, abortion, the Supreme Court also didn’t change the results. Nor did the “personal barbs” tossed back and forth.
“What explains Trump’s continued lead? One key fact that has shown up in the three days of IBD-TIPP polling is that Trump holds a substantial 42 percent to 31 percent advantage over Clinton among independent voters.”
They generally are socially liberal but fiscally conservative – and they “now make up about 34 percent of the electorate.”
Rasmussen, which had Trump ahead 43-40 on Thursday and 43-41 on Friday, said, “A new high of 88 percent of voters now say they are certain how they will vote in this election. Among these voters, it’s Trump 48 percent, Clinton 47 percent, Johnson three percent and Stein two percent. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and election day, it’s Trump 38 percent, Trump 25 percent, Johnson 21 percent and Stein 16 percent.”
Rasmussen’s survey of 1,500 likely voters has a sample error rate of 2.5 percent.
The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times “Daybreak” poll, which polls about 3,000 eligible voters daily, on Friday had Donald Trump at 44.5 percent and Hillary Clinton at 43.8 percent.
Trump’s margin there has been increasing, even if only slightly, over recent days.
The polls are starting to reflect the impact of Wednesday’s debate, which appears so far to have been nominal.
Re: US Politics Thread
Every one of those polls is Republican-leaning and mean nothing by themselves. Hundreds of other polls have it going the opposite way. There's truth in both, but you have to look at them as a whole, not individual polls.
State polls are what really matter anyway.
Re: US Politics Thread
Polls oversampling dems, women and now college degrees.
This is what it will come down to:
In NC first day early voting, Dems down 11%, Reps down 7% but Inds UP 28% from 2012. That's the Monster Vote coming out for Trump!
Any polling modeling itself on the 2012 election is in for a rude awakening.
Re: US Politics Thread
Maybe I shouldn't say this John, but I haven't noticed any difference at all.
Heh
No that is true enough. For the most part I could function normally enough, or as normal as I can be.. Just those moments my body would betray me, not my personality, & that led to a couple of hairy incidents.
Unfortunately this is me sober. I know, I'm hard fucking work!
Not talking about the weed. The weed on its own I can handle. Just was indulging far too much in other vices that I couldn't control or predict with the same certainty. Fuck like I am ashamed of some of the stuff I did. But.. I do like being high. I do have a problem tho.. Or two..
Yea. See there's not much difference. I can't shut myself up or off. So much wasted energy. And all to do with nothing.
Re: US Politics Thread
Every one of those polls is Republican-leaning and mean nothing by themselves. Hundreds of other polls have it going the opposite way. There's truth in both, but you have to look at them as a whole, not individual polls.
State polls are what really matter anyway.
Yup, that LA Times/Daybreak is the most unreliable poll online. Paying attention to state polls ONLY, it paints a very bleak picture for Trump. Cramer posted it a few pages ago but states like Alaska and Texas are in play for Clinton, this is gonna be a blowout Only question is whether or not the Democrats control the Senate and House.
