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Re: US Politics Thread
I'd say it definitely is. They've been throwing the kitchen sink at him since August (not to mention since the beginning of his campaign), yet he's closed the "insurmountable" gap to Hillary in that time.
And according to who? The 4 released on Real Clear today show him ahead in two, tied in the third and behind 2 points in the fourth.
Also the Trump support sites I visit have done nothing but post polls every day for the last few weeks. They weren't doing that a month ago when he was way behind (a loss of almost 10 points in some for Hillary, which nobody is talking about).
Not that what happened so recently will be reflected in any of these of course. Well, the LA times daily tracker would, but he's ahead by 4 there so.
Re: US Politics Thread
I'd say it definitely is. They've been throwing the kitchen sink at him since August (not to mention since the beginning of his campaign), yet he's closed the "insurmountable" gap to Hillary in that time.
And according to who? The 4 released on Real Clear today show him ahead in two, tied in the third and behind 2 points in the fourth.
Also the Trump support sites I visit have done nothing but post polls every day for the last few weeks. They weren't doing that a month ago when he was way behind (a loss of almost 10 points in some for Hillary, which nobody is talking about).
Not that what happened so recently will be reflected in any of these of course. Well, the LA times daily tracker would, but he's ahead by 4 there so.
Average them all and he's falling. The polls showing him ahead are all right leaning polls: Rasmussen, Emerson, L.A. Times.
The fact is, he's trailing in every battleground state except Arizona and Georgia. And the fact that those are battlegrounds is not good for Trump. Hell, in New Mexico he might finish third.
Early voting has started, and with the polls in the position they are now, he's probably already way behind in real votes in many states.
He needs a knockout punch in Sunday's debate, and that might not be enough. If Hillary faints on stage, that might do it.
Still, there's time. But it's ticking away. In the meantime, he keeps spending precious time tweeting about Alicia Machadi and Megyn Kelly.
The last debate is not gonna help either one significantly. It's too close to the election.
Re: US Politics Thread
http://projects.rrpromortyeight.com/201 … id=rrpromo
This is the only polling I take serious. Their info and predictions are uncanny.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: US Politics Thread
http://projects.rrpromortyeight.com/201 … id=rrpromo
This is the only polling I take serious. Their info and predictions are uncanny.
Link doesn't work for me
Re: US Politics Thread
I was thinking about Flagg's post. It reminded me of the "quiet Trump supporter" theory when polling and why I think it's wrong. In fact I think it may be the exact opposite of that.
There are a couple of things that come to mind.
1) "Quiet" and "Trump supporter" don't necessarily go together. I find it unlikely that anybody who supports Trump would deny it over the phone (of all scenarios.) Trump voters are vocal in their support to say the least.
2) I find a "Quiet Hillary supporter" much more likely in this election. Given the numerous highly regarded Republicans who have come out against Trump, I'd imagine many registered conservatives feel the same way. Not everybody is going to come out of the closet like Flagg did and post about it publicly. But once they are behind the curtains voting, I'd be a large block swing for Hillary simply because it's the rational choice.
Polling averages have Trump down again. His path to 270 could happen, but the probability is extremely low IMO. At this point, as stated prior, with early voting starting this may be what he's locked into. Another rambling debate performance Sunday and it's all over.
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: US Politics Thread
I was thinking about Flagg's post. It reminded me of the "quiet Trump supporter" theory when polling and why I think it's wrong. In fact I think it may be the exact opposite of that.
There are a couple of things that come to mind.
1) "Quiet" and "Trump supporter" don't necessarily go together. I find it unlikely that anybody who supports Trump would deny it over the phone (of all scenarios.) Trump supporters are vocal in their support to say the least.
2) I find a "Quiet Hillary supporter" much more likely in this election. Given the numerous highly regarded Republicans who have come out against Trump, I'd imagine many registered conservatives feel the same way. Not everybody is going to come out of the closet like Flagg did and post about it publicly. But once they are behind the curtains voting, I'd be a large block swing for Hillary simply because it's the rational choice.
Polling averages have Trump down again. His path to 270 could happen, but the probability is extremely low IMO. At this point, as stated prior, with early voting starting this may be what he's locked into. Another rambling debate performance Sunday and it's all over.
I don't know. Let's just use racism as a comparison. How many people do you think have racist beliefs/desires, but don't share them publicly? I'm not saying Trump supporters are racist, but Clinton and many outlets and pundits have said so. So around the water cooler you shrug and say it's all a mess, but vote for Trump because you're sick of business as usual and the growing effort to silence unpopular ideas or questioning the progressive narrative. But to say so publicly incurs the wrath of those who aren't very informed or capable of articulating their own logic.
I just don't see the same barrier or concern in confessing support for Clinton. If you say you're going to support Clinton, unless someone is dressed in a Carhart and "Don't Tread on Me" cap, I don't think you have to be concerned about being called a bigot, racist or something else meant to end discussion. Granted, a Republican is certainly going to be more hesitant to pledge their support to friends and like minded acquaintances, but that same clandestine support isn't necessary like it is for Trump. No one is calling Clinton supporters "deplorable."
Re: US Politics Thread
1) "Quiet" and "Trump supporter" don't necessarily go together. I find it unlikely that anybody who supports Trump would deny it over the phone (of all scenarios.) Trump supporters are vocal in their support to say the least.
The referendum in the UK was swung by people who normally don't vote who turned in large numbers thanks to the over the top inflammatory promises by the right.
Most people assumed that remain would win regardless and the media certainly feed into that with polls. In the end, alot of the people from the areas most likely to vote remain felt like they didn't really need to vote.
Do any US polls take into account the likelihood of voters from certain backgrounds to vote?
- Randall Flagg
- Rep: 139
Re: US Politics Thread
Cramer wrote:1) "Quiet" and "Trump supporter" don't necessarily go together. I find it unlikely that anybody who supports Trump would deny it over the phone (of all scenarios.) Trump supporters are vocal in their support to say the least.
The referendum in the UK was swung by people who normally don't vote who turned in large numbers thanks to the over the top inflammatory promises by the right.
Most people assumed that remain would win regardless and the media certainly feed into that with polls. In the end, alot of the people from the areas most likely to vote remain felt like they didn't really need to vote.
Do any US polls take into account the likelihood of voters from certain backgrounds to vote?
Yes, but you'd be hard pressed to find anything at a national level that is current. But while excitement aided Obama in 2008 and to a lesser extent in 2012, Clinton hasn't rallied the people behind her. She has non excitement. Just look at the size of Trump rallies compared to hers. She'll do well with women, the youth and minorities. But the youth are always in poor turnout and minorities aren't excited by her - Obama had a special resonance for obvious reasons. Just compare voter turnout in the primaries compared to 2012 for each party. That tells you all you need to know.
