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Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
It's been a great week for Trump!
For the first time in 30 years, a gallop poll shows that the RNC convention has left most Americans less likely to vote for a presidential nominee. Looks like it was a total bust.
http://i63.tinypic.com/2m5lavo.png
On top of that ,Nudes of Melania have surfaced. Sexy girl on girl stuff too! You deeply religious, family value Republican voters here should love these!
http://i66.tinypic.com/1zqdefm.jpg
http://nypost.com/2016/08/01/melania-tr … -revealed/
His despicable comments about the Kahn family may also be the beginning of his demise. If he's not smart enough to shut his trap for something like this, then he clearly doesn't have the temperament to be POTUS. At the very least, strategically, he should be wise enough not to address it. But he couldn't help himself...and here he is with various Vet groups and Republicans speaking out against him.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/ … story.html
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStor … y-41038893
Lets watch him loose the evangelicals and military constituency in one week...this is going to be fun.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
This guy predicted 49 of 50 states last time. He's giving Trump a small edge to win if the election was held today.
Hillary had a huge swing after the convention. He's now giving Hillary a 83.8% chance to win if the election was held now.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
polluxlm wrote:This guy predicted 49 of 50 states last time. He's giving Trump a small edge to win if the election was held today.
Hillary had a huge swing after the convention. He's now giving Hillary a 83.8% chance to win if the election was held now.
This one gives Trump 87%. 
http://www.newsday.com/opinion/my-model … 1.12102905
Some 20 years ago, I constructed a formula, The Primary Model, that has predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced. It is based on elections dating to 1912. The formula was wrong only once: The 1960 election. That one hurt because John F. Kennedy was my preferred candidate.
The Primary Model consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcomes of primaries.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
The Primary Model consists of two ingredients: The swing of the electoral pendulum, and the outcomes of primaries.
The part in bold is likely why he'll be wrong this time around. The mess that the GOP is today is not in any way comparable to your conservatives of yesteryear, which I believe even our conservative friends will acknowledge.
I think the last republican presidency was when the pendulum snapped, and it has been flying towards the left ever since. As demonstrated by the unlikely strength of the campaign of a certain 74 year old socialist/atheist, who in a normal election cycle would not have been as close to getting the democratic nomination as he got.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Trump isn't your typical conservative though. In this election him and Bernie have more in common than with the rest of the field. The pendulum is definitely looking for change as evidenced by both their surprisingly successful campaigns.
The main difference from the past are the demographics. Problem for Trump is that a large portion of voters will never vote Republican. On the other hand he's got about as weak an opponent as he can get and his supporters are definitely more enthusiastic. Low turnout for Hillary could be what puts him over the top.
But we are treading new ground, so I agree old models won't necessarily tell us much.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
I would eat Melania's shit. I want more nudes.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Cramer is right its been a bad few days for Trump. The pendulum swings weekly. Look at those predictions. So called experts with their fool proof stats saying Trump was guaranteed to win months ago are now saying the exact opposite.
massive defense spending bills- check
Gonna rescind this complaint. Always been pro miltary and believe they could trim the excess fat but in this evolving world these budgets are basically a requirement. Look at the F-35 news coming out. It has exceeded all expectations and IMO worth its trillion dollar budget. Our own SAM systems cant even lock on to one during drills/war games and we are way ahead of other countries in this area(as well as many others). They had to turn their transponders on and to see if the 'adversary' could still have a chance. This jet is so high tech that the versions we're selling to allies do not even have all the (classified) bells and whistles. The UK said they may not even be able to use them properly.
When the US is unveiling aircraft that can go deep into enemy territory, level the shit out of whatever the targets are, get out of there with out even being spotted, that is a miltary that absolutely no one wants to fuck with, including Russia. Imaging bombs going off, jets being shot down, and you cant even see who is doing it. The US miltary is entering a new era. Bordering on pure stealth and a killer ABM system.
Reagan was mocked for wanting this and I'm glad his vision is no longer being mocked but is instead a reality. Main difference is Reagan was doing it for deterrent purposes(peace through strength) while ours seems to be more of an offensive nature.
Either way, as Dan Quayle once said, the future is now.
I have a feeling that if/when the US does a massive strike on NK, these will be the aircraft doing the heavy lifting. They will definitely be used to give other countries a 'moment of pause'.
Off topic but what happened to those Russian helicopter pilots in Syria yesterday is disgusting. Black Hawk Down all over again. Desecrating those pilots bodies dragging them through the streets. Putin should drop some of those 'Father of all bombs' on those fuckers. Always said if I had been prez during the Black Hawk Down/Somalia incident, I would have dropped daisy cutters one by one over downtown Mogadishu for days on end and to hell with the world's reaction.
I've always wanted to see this full footage of the incident. Not the desectration of the bodies. We saw clips of that. I'm talking the full footage recorded by US planes monitoring the situation where you see thousands of Somali men, women, and children running to the crash site to kill the guys who survived the crash. Want to see the footage of that Delta Force guy who is a hero. He could've got out of there and survived(he was dropped in to help extract them) but he stayed and mowed down those people in the hundreds(maybe a couple thousand, forgot the correct stats) until he ran out of bullets. He was then killed. I think he won the Medal of Honor but don't quote me on that. We were there to feed and help those people and THAT is the thanks we get? Like I said, Daisy Cutters til the cows come home.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
WikiLeaks: Hacked Emails Prove Hillary ARMED JIHADISTS In Syria - Including ISIS
Fresh off of throwing the Democratic National Convention into turmoil after proving that party officials had conspired to sabotage Bernie Sanders' campaign, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange announced that he has some even more damaging material in his trove of hacked emails — this time involving Hillary Clinton pushing to arm jihadists in Syria, including ISIS.
As Gateway Pundit's Jim Hoft notes, in her testimony in January 2013 during the congressional Benghazi hearings, Clinton denied under oath having any knowledge of the weapons trade program with Syrian rebels that took place a year before the Benghazi attack. Now Assange says that in the collection of hacked emails his group has procured, 17,000 are "about Libya alone," and among them is proof that Clinton "pushed" for weapons to be sent to "jihadists within Syria, including ISIS."
"So, those Hillary Clinton emails, they connect together with the cables that we have published of Hillary Clinton, creating a rich picture of how Hillary Clinton performs in office, but, more broadly, how the U.S. Department of State operates," Assange told Democracy Now Tuesday. "So, for example, the disastrous, absolutely disastrous intervention in Libya, the destruction of the Gaddafi government, which led to the occupation of ISIS of large segments of that country, weapons flows going over to Syria, being pushed by Hillary Clinton, into jihadists within Syria, including ISIS, that’s there in those emails.There’s more than 1,700 emails in Hillary Clinton’s collection, that we have released, just about Libya alone."
Proof that the Democratic presidential nominee helped arm ISIS? Not exactly the kind of "experience" the Clinton campaign has been touting. And, of course, this is just more evidence that Clinton's 2013 Benghazi testimony was riddled with lies.
During that testimony, Clinton told Sen. Rand Paul that she didn't have "any information" on any weapons transfer program with insurgent groups in Turkey or elsewhere run out of Libya. Here's the transcript (video below):
Paul: My question is, is the US involved in any procuring of weapons, transfer of weapons, buying, selling anyhow transferring weapons to Turkey out of Libya?
Clinton: To Turkey? I’ll have to take that question for the record. That’s, nobody’s ever raised that with me.
Paul: It’s been in news reports that ships have been leaving from Libya and that they may have weapons. And what I’d like to know is, that annex that was close by, were they involved with procuring, buying, selling, obtaining weapons and were any of these weapons being transferred to other countries? Any countries, Turkey included?
Clinton: Well, Senator you’ll have to direct that question to the agency that ran the annex. And, I will see what information was available.
Paul: You’re saying you don’t know?
Clinton: I do not know. I don’t have any information on that.
