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Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Depends. Does he want to give up his best game? Getting his opponents off balance is what brought him here. Perhaps he'll just end up looking plain if he holds back.
Where I was going with that was it can seem different when a man is a bit of a jerk to a man (Cruz, Rubio etc) than a woman. Remember Trump took quite a bit of heat when he insulted Carly Fiorina in the early debates.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
That's the bind for someone like Trump. He would be expected to tone it down anyway, trying to reign in the moderates, but then he might lose his edge. It's a risk. I hadn't thought too much about the gender factor. Because it's Hillary I guess. 
Another thing is that there's plenty to attack with Hillary. She's a walking scandal. Trump probably should try and capitalize on that to the max.
I think she's tough enough to make it work. A boxing match would be wonderful to watch.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Another thing is that there's plenty to attack with Hillary. She's a walking scandal. Trump probably should try and capitalize on that to the max.
I think she's tough enough to make it work. A boxing match would be wonderful to watch.
Yeah, Trumps just gonna milk & expose this Deb-Was-Schulz emails scandal all week and them some. The controversies are just falling right into his lap lol
And yes, a swingfest at the debates would be great. HRC is pretty experienced at these & would go toe to toe.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Someone still has to point out the actual states that Trump will win to take otherwise it's all a bunch of hot air to me. He's not winning either of the big coastal states (NY and CA) and he basically has to sweep most of the battleground/swing states to win and keep ALL of the red states from the last election.
He might have a tough time holding onto Arizona as there are a fair number of Latino voters there.
I think Clinton will destroy Trump in the debates as well.
MOnths ago I played around with the electoral map as I was also curious as to how he could actually get there. At the time I thought he had a legit shot at CA but he has largely ignored it and likely has no shot. This wikileaks thing is a potential game changer though.
Here are those maps:
Here is the electoral map as it stands.....but I placed Trump as the winner in CA. I changed nothing else.
How does she win 90% of the undecided states? She could easily lose Florida as well.
In a 'Trump wins CA' scenario, how can Hillary win 9 out of 10 states?
Here's a scenario where we leave CA in the Hillary column but Trump wins FL. I ask again....how does she win the majority of the undecided states even with CA not in play?
IMO if Hillary cant lock up CA, FL, and PA....she cant win. PA and OH are critical in the early hours on election day. OH is overrated and yeah I know how historic it is. Technically you can win the presidency without it....but the statistics disagree.
Here's a scenario where Hillary gets CA AND Ohio but Trump wins FL...
She still has to say prayers.
I'm just not seeing any Hillary landslide scenarios. I'm going to look at all the polls again(which I did before compiling these scenarios) and see if any sort of Clinton landslide is feasible.
A Trump landslide more likely but I think both have some crucial issues to deal with. Trump has to climb Mt Everest to win. Hillary has to climb Mt Everest with Roseanne Barr and Rosie O Donnell on her back to win.
edit:
I think you're underestimating how many people despise everything about Clinton.
Yeah and this cant be said often enough. Yes many people hate Trump but the hatred for Hillary runs deep. I cant even imagine many young people who barely know of her actually liking her. Its obvious she simply feels entitled to the presidency and doesn't give the tiniest of shits about anybody.
She's also just a continuation of what we already have. If there was a candidate like Reagan running against her, she'd be the Mondale of this election. Actually...she'd be worse. She wouldn't win any states.
- monkeychow
- Rep: 661
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Serious question from a non-american: Why isn't Al Gore running?
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
He's too busy saving the planet from global warming and the job got even more difficult when he found out the whole solar system is heating up. Hard to blame people in line at gas stations for the higher temps on Saturn and Pluto. Give him time.....he'll figure out a way to blame us.
Another reason he's not running is because he'd lose.
A better question would be....why isn't Biden running? He would have had a serious chance at getting my vote.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
If Gary Johnson can pick up the Bernie supporters after the leaks, he can make an impact. Don't know that he can win, but all you giving this to Hillary are going to shit yourselves if she can't win the Bernie supporters back somehow.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_ma … /aDJbn.png
IMO if Hillary cant lock up CA, FL, and PA....she cant win. PA and OH are critical in the early hours on election day. OH is overrated and yeah I know how historic it is. Technically you can win the presidency without it....but the statistics disagree.
Here's a scenario where Hillary gets CA AND Ohio but Trump wins FL...
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_ma … /5Bz81.pngShe still has to say prayers.
I'm just not seeing any Hillary landslide scenarios. I'm going to look at all the polls again(which I did before compiling these scenarios) and see if any sort of Clinton landslide is feasible.
A Trump landslide more likely but I think both have some crucial issues to deal with. Trump has to climb Mt Everest to win. Hillary has to climb Mt Everest with Roseanne Barr and Rosie O Donnell on her back to win.
Here's the thing she doesn't need FL or PA or OH to win Trump does. If you go with the simple map (the first one) all she has to do is win the midwest states + NV + NC + VA and NH. I gave her COL since polls show up by a few points and she made a big ad buy that didn't include COL. I gave her CA since there is no evidence at this time that says the state is even in play given the shitty condition of the Republican party in that state.
The point here is that she can afford to lose a lot more states than Trump and that she has more ways to win than him. She doesn't need to win all those states he does. Oh and there are conditions that make it pretty likely/favorable for her to win all those states.
Again, I mentioned this before but as far the GOTV machine goes, Hilary has a big advantage there since she's been in general election mode for a while now. They already started a new voter campaign program. Trump? He has major trouble with his GOTV operation.
Here's something on PA from last month:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/d … nia-224966
Anyway, I think you have it reversed. Trump is the one with the mountain to climb not Clinton.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Funny thing.....I just went to 270towin and put in exactly what you just said in that scenario in your post......and it all boils down to Trump taking Wisconsin and Iowa or Hillary just winning one of them......and Trump is currently in the lead in Iowa and is catching up in Wisconsin.
Will Wisconsin be the new Florida?
