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Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
bigbri wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:Looks all but official. Trump vs Clinton
Then it's just a formality: Hillary Clinton will be president. She'll win in a landslide. No doubt in my mind. Two of the worst nominees in my lifetime.
It'll never happen.
I'm telling you.
We're going to come back to this post in November, I promise you that. Not only (keeping in mind no dirty tricks), straight Trump vs. Hilary... not only will Trump win, he'll win by over 60% of the popular vote.
Yep
Where are you getting this idea from? There is zero data to support this. None. Zilch. Nada.
It is going to be a blowout of epic proportion in Hillary's favor. Trump is despised. The GOP has the lowest approval rating in the last 20 years right now; most of which comes from Republicans on top of it.
Hillary has about 250 EVs walking in the door.
Trump with over 60% of the popular vote....how much money would you like to wager on that one? 
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
bigbri wrote:Smoking Guns wrote:Looks all but official. Trump vs Clinton
Then it's just a formality: Hillary Clinton will be president. She'll win in a landslide. No doubt in my mind. Two of the worst nominees in my lifetime.
It'll never happen.
I'm telling you.
We're going to come back to this post in November, I promise you that. Not only (keeping in mind no dirty tricks), straight Trump vs. Hilary... not only will Trump win, he'll win by over 60% of the popular vote.
Yep
I'll bet you the opposite happens and Hillary has a Reagan-like landslide.
In virtually every single poll (I'm literally talking 99.9%) Hillary beats Trump. This is individual states and national polls. The only state that is remotely close is Florida, and that poll is from a couple months ago. It's only gotten worse for Trump since. He does have Louisiana, I'll give him that.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Trump vs Clinton will be nothing like what the polls are saying right now.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
In fairness Axlin16 could be referring to Hilary's email scandal, and if something comes of the investigation, or if the public tires of it, and begins to distrust her. If it blows up, it could become a smaller version of Watergate, only one which comes up during the election cycle.
For me, a better guess, would be either a 3rd party, and/or 4th party candidate, (liberal & conservative) that really throws this election out of whack. Only then, Trump wouldn't win by "60% of the vote", but he could "win".
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
I find it funny that online news organisations like "The Young Turks" have spent so much time going on about how Hillary is bad, corrupt, might get thrown in jail, only stupid people don't vote for Sanders... are running stories now with the idea that Hillary would be a better candidate than Trump.
Unfortunately for them after spending a year tearing down Clinton in front of their viewers, their viewers seem to be more supportive of Trump than Hillary. What a shock 
.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Axlin16 wrote:bigbri wrote:Then it's just a formality: Hillary Clinton will be president. She'll win in a landslide. No doubt in my mind. Two of the worst nominees in my lifetime.
It'll never happen.
I'm telling you.
We're going to come back to this post in November, I promise you that. Not only (keeping in mind no dirty tricks), straight Trump vs. Hilary... not only will Trump win, he'll win by over 60% of the popular vote.
Yep
Where are you getting this idea from? There is zero data to support this. None. Zilch. Nada.
It is going to be a blowout of epic proportion in Hillary's favor. Trump is despised. The GOP has the lowest approval rating in the last 20 years right now; most of which comes from Republicans on top of it.
Hillary has about 250 EVs walking in the door.
Trump with over 60% of the popular vote....how much money would you like to wager on that one?
You watch too much of the mainstream, corporate-media. That's what they, and their polls want you to believe.
Rarely are these exit polls EVER correct. And i've been watching them for years. Primaries, for the most part, in easy states, yes. But the majority, the numbers are usually way off.
I remember for most of 2004, specifically the summer of 2004, how John Kerry getting elected for President that year was a virtual lock. Many said Bush was despised, his party hated him, he had atrocious approval ratings, the country was in the middle of an unnecessary war, etc. Bush's goose was cooked. MANY of the mainstream media outlets and political insiders went on and on how Bush was a dead duck. The party had thought about nominating another candidate, and Bush would be a one-and-done President, like his father.
I remember seeing polls which had Kerry close to 60% to Bush's 37%, and so on.
Never once did I buy Bush wasn't getting re-elected. Not because he's an insider, not because of his daddy's connections, etc. But based strictly off the popular vote.
Now the final tally was pretty close, but Bush straight-up beat Kerry. ALL of the polls were wrong. Dead wrong. Everyone acted stunned, especially on the Democrat-side. How could this happen? People HATE Bush! How could he not only win, but he easily won, both the popular vote and the electoral college. Kerry never really even gave him a run for his money.
What happened?
Everybody, from the media to celebrities (looking at you Eddie Vedder & Bruce Springsteen), were so far up Kerry's ass that they couldn't see the truth. Kerry was a HORRENDOUS candidate, and was like listening to that tree from Lord of the Rings talk.
I'm not going to give you facts, because I can't. It's just a straight gut feeling. I've successfully predicted every election since 1996. Call it intuition, a feeling, whatever.
In 2012, the polls never had Romney beating Obama, but the GOP was blinded by the fact that thinking Romney had a chance. Most polls had Romney & Obama neck and neck. Called that one, with Obama crushing Romney without a contest... and he did. The smoke cleared the next day, and GOP insiders like Karl Rove & Newt Gingrich were left shell-shocked wondering not only did they get it wrong, but how far off they really were. Romney didn't even make Obama sweat. Knew it would happen then.
Plus couple in the fact, that history doesn't support the polls evidence. Not only are the polls wrong, but after eight years (two terms) of one party, usually the other party unseats the other party. Why? Because the American people are STUPID. They think after 8 years of one party fucking it up, that voting in the other will change it.
Case in point:
Eight years George W. Bush (REP), Barack Obama (DEM) gets voted in for eight years... REP next?
Eight years Bill Clinton (DEM), George W. Bush (REP) gets voted in for eight years... DEM followed
Eight years Ronald Reagan (REP), George H.W. Bush (REP) gets voted in for FOUR years only (look at history)... DEM followed
Eight years of Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford (REP), Jimmy Carter (DEM) followed for four years... REP followed for 12
Eight years of John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson (DEM), Richard Nixon/Gerald Ford (REP) followed for eight
Eight years of Dwight D. Eisenhower (REP), John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson (DEM) followed for eight
Some exceptions were FDR/Truman, and Coolidge/Hoover, but in the modern era... we've been like this for quite some time.
The trends of recent history DO NOT SUPPORT the polls
Axlin16 has just been watching too much of Dallas.
Probably 
Axlin16 wrote:bigbri wrote:Then it's just a formality: Hillary Clinton will be president. She'll win in a landslide. No doubt in my mind. Two of the worst nominees in my lifetime.
It'll never happen.
I'm telling you.
We're going to come back to this post in November, I promise you that. Not only (keeping in mind no dirty tricks), straight Trump vs. Hilary... not only will Trump win, he'll win by over 60% of the popular vote.
Yep
I'll bet you the opposite happens and Hillary has a Reagan-like landslide.
In virtually every single poll (I'm literally talking 99.9%) Hillary beats Trump. This is individual states and national polls. The only state that is remotely close is Florida, and that poll is from a couple months ago. It's only gotten worse for Trump since. He does have Louisiana, I'll give him that.
The media has gone out of their way to coddle and emblazon Hillary as some sort of babyface savior, and the "cool" President, for no other reason than having no firm grasp of why Obama won in 2008.
I knew, and called, Obama in 2008 as well. Obama didn't win because he was a "rock star" or the "celebrity president". Obama won, because the majority of the people saw Obama in 2008 as a renegade, promising hope & change (we got neither), and that Obama was an African-American who fought his way on student loans to rise to the top, and become a Cinderella-story of showing up to the President's chair. Obviously that was bullcrap, but it didn't matter.
People believed it. They saw as Obama fighting for US, against THEM.
I'm basing my opinion on Hilary, based on knowing people, lifelong Democrats for over the past 20 years, who ADORED Bill Clinton, but yet consistently loathed his wife. Hilary might be winning (or stealing imo) super-delegates from Bernie, but the fact remains that Bernie Sanders has kicked ass for WAY WAY WAY longer than ANYONE expected that old bad ass jew to do. I think the guy puts his foot in his mouth alot, but God bless him for holding his own against Hilary and the DNC-insider system.
The fact remains that virtually half of the Democratic party is just as incensed as the Republican party, and want BERNIE. Not Hilary. And I personally (maybe i'm wrong), don't think that the average Bernie supporter is going to vote Hillary. It's so obvious that even Trump's camp has realized the dis-enfranchisement, and despite him being the GOP-front runner, has reached out to try to woo Bernie voters. It's insane, yes, but he's doing it. Not Hilary. But Trump. Why? Because Trump's not stupid. He's risen based solely off of anger, fear, and disenfranchisement with the system, the exact reason Bernie was poised to be crushed by Hillary, yet stayed in the race for WAY LONGER than anyone expected based on Democrat voters who were voting AGAINST Hillary, by voting for Bernie. I don't believe that many people were voting FOR Bernie Sanders. Sanders has rode the wave of Anti-Hillary voters, and now Trump is trying to pick up that ball half-court, and carry it to a Kobe-style 60-point game finish.
Will it work? Yes and no. I do truly believe some Bernie voters are going to jump and vote for Trump. As crazy as that sounds. People who wanted a Communist for President, jumping across the aisle and voting for a Populist (Trump). It's a batshit insane scenario, and Trump won't get some massive number from those voters, but Trump will get alot of Democrat-registered, anti-Hillary votes imo.
None of what I have said, has been taken into consideration by these polls, or what the mainstream media predicts. Not because I AM crazy, but because of the fact that the media is still counting out Trump.
Every time, they count out Trump... he comes back. Every time they nail him on SOME-thing... he comes back. Trump just rises with more and more and more hate, the more Trump's numbers will rise. I promise you this. The more the media slams him, the more George Soros-paid for Mexicans protest his rallies, the more those voting numbers rise. Higher... and higher. The more Hillary panders to women, gays (Trump surprisingly has done this too... NO media coverage), minorities... the more Trump's numbers will go up.
Trump will win in November if running on the GOP ticket. A 3rd party... now all of the sudden it's a hard sell, and even I won't risk that.
Hillary is a potential loser, with a bad rep, that I haven't met one Democrat in my life who liked her. However... i've met alot of people who like Trump. People who would NEVER EVER mention it OUT LOUD that they love Trump, but secretly under their breath... "shh... yeah I like Trump".
Again... the silent majority. They will elect Trump for the same reasons Obama got elected in 2008. Trump is seen as an outsider, and the anti-candidate. They feel he is telling them things, NO ONE will admit to, including Hillary.
With Hillary's past, bad press, mixed reaction to public speaking, Hillary is an easy target. Hillary is running for her party and the neo-con insiders she represents. But Trump is running for all. Of course himself at the top. When that power paradigm starts to shift away from Hillary (trust me... it will), people in Washington will feel the wind change, and get JOB SCARED. POWER SCARED. Trump will promise everyone from me, to you, to Lucifer himself, a job in his adminstration, whoever he has to... TO WIN.
Hillary is trying to Politick her way to the top
Trump is trying to just fucking win. If he has to politick... he will. If he has to pander... he will. If he has to buy people... he will. If he has to threaten... he will.
Forget money, and all the comedy routines making fun of Trump's idle threats. Trump is the wave. No different than Obama in 2008. There are people out there that want and are starved for that power. Politics is a fair-weather game, and despite the media hatred for Trump, Trump is seen as the guy of the people. There are people who will attach to his ship, to his rocket, just to make sure they're there for the for flight.
It's how politics is. And how it's always been. Nothing has changed.
I expect a complete media blackout going into the election, because Hillary will get SLAUGHTERED. So how will they combat it... just don't show Trump. Just promote Hillary.
And you know what that does?
Just drives Trump's numbers higher.
Trump vs Clinton will be nothing like what the polls are saying right now.
This.
See my above statements. The polls mean nothing.
In fairness Axlin16 could be referring to Hilary's email scandal, and if something comes of the investigation, or if the public tires of it, and begins to distrust her. If it blows up, it could become a smaller version of Watergate, only one which comes up during the election cycle.
For me, a better guess, would be either a 3rd party, and/or 4th party candidate, (liberal & conservative) that really throws this election out of whack. Only then, Trump wouldn't win by "60% of the vote", but he could "win".
Yeah I kind of exaggerate that 60% thing, but what i'm saying is I fully expect Trump win easy.
Trust me, it's gonna shock alot of people. Alot of people are going to be stunned that he won, and stunned that he ever got as much of the vote as he did.
The Republicans and mainstream media have already massacred Trump with allegations of racism, corruption, insider-bullshit with money and bankruptcy, kicking an old woman out of her house, killing Batman... whatever.
And guess what?
None of it has stuck. His numbers just rise like Bruce Wayne out of the pit *cue Horner/Zimmer music*
Nobody knows the extent of what Hillary has done. She is beyond a war criminal, regardless of the e-mails. I fully expect a continued media blackout... but guess who isn't going to shut up about it?
Trump
"Bill Cosby, Bill Clinton... what's the difference?" -- Donald J. Trump
"All of Bill Clinton's affairs. Let's talk about Hillary. Bill wasn't the only one who had women on the side" -- Donald J. Trump
This crazy ass New York mutha fucka don't play by dem's rulez. He don't. This guy, as soon as he gets that GOP label, and the push... he's gonna THEN take the gloves off. And there's alot of people that just - don't - know, on a mass-level about this Hillary stuff.
Trump is going to take a word here, a word there... and run with it. Beat it into the ground, and make her look bad.
Hillary -- "Shame on you Donald Trump! Shame on you for lying to the American public"
Donald -- "It's just not true"
Booooooo Boooo Get off the stage Trump
Those numbers just go higher and higher for Trump. I truly believe the Democrats would have a better chance at beating Trump, by selecting Bernie Sanders. Yes... a Commie versus a Populist. But it would completely split the Disenfranchised-vote, and give them a better shot at edging Trump.
Hillary 2016 is Kerry 2004 -- Revisited
Trump knows how to play to the cameras like an ace. Just like Obama. And it will win him the Presidency.
I find it funny that online news organisations like "The Young Turks" have spent so much time going on about how Hillary is bad, corrupt, might get thrown in jail, only stupid people don't vote for Sanders... are running stories now with the idea that Hillary would be a better candidate than Trump.
Unfortunately for them after spending a year tearing down Clinton in front of their viewers, their viewers seem to be more supportive of Trump than Hillary. What a shock
This, as well.
This will disillusion Bernie supporters enough, that some of them imo will throw Trump a vote, just for no other reason than "Fuck Hillary".
There's a reason Trump has been behind the scenes doing all he can to try to woo a support backing by Bernie (an Independent, not a Democrat, most forget that).
People are over all of it, and are starting to fall in line with my "Fuck the Vote" campaign. They realize it's all a sham thanks to the internet, alternative media, and a mixed combination of shows like Alex Jones' InfoWars, The Young Turks, Russia Today, Democracy Now!, and seeing first hand the shady-ness of the mainstream media.
Recently a poll was done to survey how much people believed of the mainstream media. They got a 6% approval rate. That means 94% think they are being lied to, or misled.
Throw in more and more millenials into that mix, and that number is why it's like that.
People are starting to see through this and see the great Oz.
Trump will get the nomination imo. If there are dirty tricks coming, it'll be something closer to the Presidency. Some Obama scare or some fear-mongering tactic that will totally distract the American people from the election.
10-body death count shooting #4,561 ain't gonna cut it. It'll be something bigger.
But we'll see. It's gonna get nasty imo. Damn nasty.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
You watch too much of the mainstream, corporate-media. That's what they, and their polls want you to believe.
I don't watch "news." I don't even have cable. It's all garbage. Please do not speak on my behalf, and then argue against that.
Rarely are these exit polls EVER correct.
I'm not talking about exit polls. I'm talking about incoming data right now. That doesn't mean Trump v Hillary polls. It means likability scores, popularity of the Republican party (or lack of) Obama's current approval ratings, Hillary's demographic strengths/weaknesses, females who overwhelmingly hate Trump, minorities who hate Trump, apathetic Republicans who hate Trump, the demographic shift of the Electoral College map over the last decade (blue)...on and on.
In 2012, the polls never had Romney beating Obama, but the GOP was blinded by the fact that thinking Romney had a chance. Most polls had Romney & Obama neck and neck.
The GOP was blinded by residing in a echo chamber and claiming the polls were skewed by the liberal media. They even created their own "unskewed polls" and brought out talking heads who didn't know jack shit about statistics to refute what they were being told by everybody else.
Nate Silver called it, almost exactly to the EV. Some polls were off, some were way off, and others were on the money. A true statistician has the time to look at all of this data and arrive at a more acute conclusion. That's what Nate Silver did.
Lets look at an electoral map. Hillary's EV walking in the door-251 EVs. Now, NV will probably go blue, as well as Iowa. But I'll play the Devil's advocate and give four other states to Trump. That means Trump could win Fl, VA, OH and NC, and still lose.
With Hillary's past, bad press
The bad press applies overwhelmingly to the right side of the aisle. In other words while it's red meat for the GOP base, the rest of the country sees how transparent this is (13 Benghazi hearings that yielded absolutely nothing.) The amount of Democrat voters these "scandals" will sway are minimal.
Forget money, and all the comedy routines making fun of Trump's idle threats. Trump is the wave. No different than Obama in 2008.
They are not alike at all. Obama was well liked by most Americans, while Trump is overwhelmingly disliked. Obama's "unfavorable rating" in 2008 was 39%. Trump score reigns supreme at 67% (The highest in over three decades.) After the primaries Obama was embraced by the Democrat party. Trump's eventual nomination will strike a fatal blow to the GOP. They're despondent at this point already. Obama also had polling data that predicted he would win a general election, unlike Trump which shows he will lose to either Hillary or Bernie.
I agree Trump is being pushed along by a wave of people fed up with the Status Quo, but in order to win a General, he's going to need a lot more than what he's got.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Interesting stuff, but I don't think Hillary wins California. I think that'll be one of the shocker states. New York is also going to go to Trump imo.
You definitely have valid points, we just disagree on how these numbers are going to pan out. Pacific Northwest, and most of the Northeast are locks for Clinton imo. But I think Dem's lose Cali (close, but Trump edges), and I think New York is gonna be another close one, but with Trump easily winning. The rest I agree.
Which comes back to the swing states. They're going to be as much a necessity for Hillary as they are for Trump, where Trump will probably have an edge. Certainly the more Southern or Western they are.
Like I said, based on what you have there, I see your point. I am crazy, but I don't think Hillary gets Cali or NY. Those are going to be what buries her.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Please do not speak on my behalf, and then argue against that.
Oh and btw, this comment... umm... not sure how to take it.
Isn't this the ENTIRE BASIS of an internet message board?
I thought that was what the 'Reply' button was for...
