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Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
James Lofton wrote:http://www.270towin.com/presidential_ma … /aDQN9.png
Just got back from the future. Those are the results in the Trump-Hillary election.
I actually do see a landslide, but swinging against Trump. I'd say a Trump opponent could win 40+ state, easy.
A Hillary landslide? A 40+ state landslide?? That's Reagan territory. I don't see how its possible. She's not liked enough to win a landslide even in one state.
Here's a map where I give HIllary CA and a few other states her and Trump are close in. He still wins....
I was talking to Cramer last night on his site and he listed states he felt Hillary has wrapped up and some 50/50 states that I had going Trump's way. I made a map of that, left the 50/50 states neutral and this is how it plays out....
If she can win, it'll play out like that. iMO no chance of a landslide and she MUST win CA to even have a snowball's chance in hell.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
bigbri wrote:James Lofton wrote:http://www.270towin.com/presidential_ma … /aDQN9.png
Just got back from the future. Those are the results in the Trump-Hillary election.
I actually do see a landslide, but swinging against Trump. I'd say a Trump opponent could win 40+ state, easy.
A Hillary landslide? A 40+ state landslide?? That's Reagan territory. I don't see how its possible. She's not liked enough to win a landslide even in one state.
Here's a map where I give HIllary CA and a few other states her and Trump are close in. He still wins....
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_ma … /M48we.png
I was talking to Cramer last night on his site and he listed states he felt Hillary has wrapped up and some 50/50 states that I had going Trump's way. I made a map of that, left the 50/50 states neutral and this is how it plays out....
http://www.270towin.com/presidential_ma … /av04o.png
If she can win, it'll play out like that. iMO no chance of a landslide and she MUST win CA to even have a snowball's chance in hell.
That map is the same no matter what republican wins. It is about Ohio, Florida and other swing states like you left Neutral. California polls almost never matter because of the time zone thing.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
I get your point and in 1988 my mom went ballistic when she went to vote after work and found out Bush had already won. 
It does matter though. If Trump pushes himself here and he's leading, it tells the dems its over because a dem cant win the presidency without CA.
A Trump lead in CA is a game changer even though the election is usually over by the time people vote here.
Imagine this race during the debates and Trump has a 10 point lead in CA. It would certainly factor into the election.
You're right though. Key states are in the east but like I said, any dem candidate MUST have CA in the bag to have a shot. If Trump can somehow remove it from the equation, I'd like to see an electoral map where a dem loses CA but still wins the presidency.
My mom took me to a Dukakis rally in 1988. We waited like six hours. At 13 I found out what the inner sanctum of hell felt like.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
If CA is in play at that late hour that would be amazing! Would be the first time in a long time!!
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Cramer has his own website?
Crass communication? Thought that was about Crass the band.. 
There is no authority but yourself..
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Trump will bring out a protest vote the likes of which have never been seen, IMO. The youth vote won't be there, not like Obama, which I think had a lot to do with a bunch of shallow, douchey college kids getting in on the cool vote. I think he'll eventually help with that demographic for Hillary, but the people who hate Trump will be the key vote.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Trump will bring out a protest vote the likes of which have never been seen
Absolutely and it'll be historic.
The youth vote won't be there
Many young people like Bernie and as they see the system is rigged for Hillary and he never had a chance, who is the only other candidate left for them?
but the people who hate Trump will be the key vote.
This election is veering into the establishment vs anti-establishment. THAT will be key.
Don't underestimate the dislike of Hillary from ALL sides.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
If CA is in play at that late hour that would be amazing! Would be the first time in a long time!!
I just looked at the map again. If you move CA over to Trump and leave everything else as is, Hillary would have to win 9 of the 10 states up for grabs.
CA is definitely a factor in this race and I hope Trump realizes that and doesn't do like most repubs and just toss it in the dem column without even trying.
There are MANY people in this state sick of illegal immigrants. To order a Big Mac you practically need to know Spanish. Half the billboards are in Spanish. He CAN win here if he is willing to put in the effort.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Here is the electoral map as it stands.....but I placed Trump as the winner in CA. I changed nothing else.
How does she win 90% of the undecided states? She could easily lose Florida as well.
In a 'Trump wins CA' scenario, how can Hillary win 9 out of 10 states?
Here's a scenario where we leave CA in the Hillary column but Trump wins FL. I ask again....how does she win the majority of the undecided states even with CA not in play?
IMO if Hillary cant lock up CA, FL, and PA....she cant win. PA and OH are critical in the early hours on election day. OH is overrated and yeah I know how historic it is. Technically you can win the presidency without it....but the statistics disagree. 
Here's a scenario where Hillary gets CA AND Ohio but Trump wins FL...
She still has to say prayers.
I'm just not seeing any Hillary landslide scenarios. I'm going to look at all the polls again(which I did before compiling these scenarios) and see if any sort of Clinton landslide is feasible.
A Trump landslide more likely but I think both have some crucial issues to deal with. Trump has to climb Mt Everest to win. Hillary has to climb Mt Everest with Roseanne Barr and Rosie O Donnell on her back to win.
