Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

PaSnow

http://news.yahoo.com/s/rasmussen/20080 … ZA7YFh24cA

Pennsylvania: Clinton 47% Obama 42% rasmussenreports.com
2 hours, 58 minutes ago

Senator Hillary Clinton's lead in the Pennsylvania Primary is shrinking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by just five percentage points, 47% to 42%. For Clinton, that five-point edge is down from a ten-point lead a week ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%.

Obama recently received a key endorsement from Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey and has also spent more on television ads than Clinton. If Obama is able to pull off an upset in the Keystone State, it would effectively end the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama currently leads Clinton nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. However, while an Obama victory could end the nomination battle, Clinton remains ahead in the state and recently demonstrated her ability to finish strong in the Ohio and Texas Primaries.

Tensions clearly remain in the contest. If Obama is nominated, just 56% of Clinton supporters say they are likely to vote for him against John McCain. Forty percent (40%) of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania say they are not likely to vote for Obama.

On the other hand, if Clinton is nominated, just 67% of Obama supporters say they are likely to vote for her against McCain. Twenty-nine percent (29%) are not.

Just 21% of Pennsylvania's Primary Voters say that Clinton should drop out of the race while 18% would like Obama to leave. Those figures are similar to results from a recent national survey. Fifty-one percent (51%) in Pennsylvania say it's very likely the contest will not be resolved until the convention in Denver. That figure includes 61% of Clinton voters and 38% of those who support Obama. Overall, another 33% say a convention decision is Somewhat Likely.

Forty-seven percent (47%) say they have followed news stories Very Closely about Clinton's Bosnia misstatements. Another 27% have followed those stories Somewhat Closely. Overall, 19% consider that issue to be Very Important in their voting decision. That figure includes 6% of Clinton supporters and 36% of Obama voters. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Pennsylvania voters say that most politicians lie or embellish the truth when discussing their own accomplishments. Only 12% disagree.

Clinton voters, by a 64% to 26% margin, believe that American society is generally fair and decent. Obama voters are evenly dividedÃ¢â‚¬'45% hold that optimistic view while another 45% say society is generally unfair and discriminatory.

Among voters who say the economy is the top voting issue, Clinton maintains a sixteen-point lead over Obama. Among those who view the War in Iraq as the top issue, Obama has a seventeen-point advantage. Among those who say health care is most important, 48% prefer Clinton and 40% choose Obama. Overall, 54% say the Economy is most important, 19% say it's the War in Iraq, and 10% say Health Care.

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 74% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 73%.

A separate survey found that both Democrats are in a competitive race with John McCain for Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes. Nationally, McCain currently leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Looking at the Electoral College, the race is essentially a Toss-Up.

Just 3% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 70% say it's in poor shape. Just 2% say it is getting better while 91% say the economy is getting worse. Nationally, the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer and investor confidence has fallen to the lowest level of the past seven years.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll shows that Clinton is overwhelming favored to end up victorious in Pennsylvania (current prices: Clinton 83.7 % Obama 17.0 %). Overall, the Markets give Obama a 81.7 % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 15.6 %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

This telephone survey of 730 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 31, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

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When these polls first started, I was shocked she was up by about 10%, I figured it'd be closer to 50/50. As with other states though, Obama started off behind then won alot of people over. It wouldn't surprise me if he wins PA. If he does, it's over. No sense moving on, he'll only dominate in North Carolina.

Randall Flagg

Weren't you the one that said Rameussen was biased because it shows McCain beating both Obama and Clinton by a large margin?

Why yes, you did:laugh:

PaSnow wrote:

Take off that biased Rasmussin poll & Obama's leading. That's like me showing a poll conduted by moveon.org. The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton handily beats McCain something like 51-44.
Also, these polls are just popular elections. Don't take into consideration which states the support is for. No way McCain wins Ohio or Michigan. No way.

PaSnow

Randall Flagg wrote:

Weren't you the one that said Rameussen was biased because it shows McCain beating both Obama and Clinton by a large margin?
Why yes, you did:laugh:

Yes, I did, and I still stand by that statement. I didn't want to say anything, but you posted the other day the new, latest polls. And again, NO poll had McCain winning by more than about 2%, EXCEPT Rasmussen. Again!!

Now, as for Obama versus Hilary, I haven't noticed any patterns. But McCain continuosly reveiving +5% over every other poll listed raised a red flag for me.

Randall Flagg

Newest polls still show McCain winning. It's called the margin of error. With the other study showing more Independents going for McCain and more Democrats going for McCain than Republicans going for Obama, Obama is in quite a predicament. He needs Ohio and Florida to win the election and it looks like he'll get neither.

Randall Flagg

Here is some interesting information. Most experts have written Florida off for Obama, McCain is pretty much certain to take that one, but Ohio is certainly in play. Latest polls show Clinton winning in Ohio against McCain, but Obama losing by 7% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls … a-400.html

Food for thought for Democrats so adamant on Obama being the party's nominee.

Randall Flagg

Oh and one more thing. Compare Ramussen's polling compared to actual results and let me know how biased they are.

PaSnow

The general election is 7+ months away. 7 months ago Clinton & Guliani were supposed to win. Alot changes over the course of time.

Obama has yet to set foot in Florida.

Randall Flagg

Politics is alot like a military campaign. In a battle it's all about location and assests. In this case, it's all about certain states. Popular vote and what people in Idaho, Delaware and Alabama think is of no real value - it's like conquering Sri Lanka or Iceland. Pay attention to the few swing states, cause that's where either party will live or die. States like California and New York will goto whomever the Democratic nominee is. Just like Texas and the rest of the south will go red. While Michigan and Pennsylvania would be nice pickups (ecspecially since McCain would have a genuine chance there versus Obama), they aren't needed. Ohio and Florida. I'm willing to wager a large sum of money that Florida will goto McCain and a couple hundred that McCain takes Ohio. If he does this, McCain will be our next President, despite how many people in California or Chicago come out to vote for him.

PaSnow

I'm not disputing that. But there's a huge difference in campaigns poll result 3 weeks away, versus 7 months away (Florida or not). Yes, the general election comes down to about 5-7 states. But what it certainly doesn't come down in is any poll results in March.

tejastech08

If she only beats him by 5 in Pennsylvania, she needs to drop out. She needed to win that state by 20-25 in order to bolster her "popular vote" argument, which she seems to think will get much closer as a result of Pennsylvania and the other states coming up. But it looks like Obama might blow her out in North Carolina, so her winning by 5 in Pennsylvania would be a disappointment for her campaign.

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

Re: Clinton lead shrinks to just 5% in PA

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