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Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Ron Paul wins it. If not, he will at least place 3rd. I've done more research on this guy since I last posted and really believe he has more of a shot than the media wants to admit. His online support is huge, he wins the majority of republican straw polls... I think the media is painfully out of touch with the people and are going to be embarrassed when Paul starts becoming too big for them to keep ignoring. Those "polls" they take are terrible terrible representations of what will actually happen and often just thrown in to make media outlets look like they know what they are talking about.
Other predictions...
Huckabee beats Romney
Hillary wins for Dems due to Obama and Edwards sharing similar voters. (Wouldn't be too surprised if I'm wrong on this though...:/)
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How about you guys. Anyone been paying attention to everything?
Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
Paul isn't gonna do anything. He does have quite a bit of support, but people are figuring out his views on health care, national security,etc., and its going to kill his campaign. He was red hot when he was talking about revamping or obliterating the Fed and getting us out of Iraq. His mistake was having insane views on other issues, and his campaign is going to go into a tailspin.
What Paul's campaign did achieve is showing that people are open to abolishing the Federal Reserve, and this issue can actually be used as a campaign platform if done correctly. If Paul was more "middle of the road" on all other issues besides the Fed, he would have already had the presidency wrapped up. Instead, his collapse will make the Fed issue go away.
Romney's success is a mirage. He is using his own money to help finance his campaign, and even if people genuinely like him, the fact he is a mormon will knock him out of the campaign. I believe Huckabee will win the Iowa Caucus, but that aint saying much. He isn't really a legitimate candidate. Giuliani's campaign is a joke. He was a legit contender when he first announced his bid, but he isn't liked by many people, and I think the fact that he has only been a mayor will play a role in nobody voting for him. From mayor to the presidency?? No thanks. Go run for governor or something. McCain should just drop out now. He will never be president. 2000 was his only legit shot at the White House and he blew it.
The picks in this election are terrible. Whoever wins, I hope they keep winning each primary so alot of these guys will drop out in the next couple weeks.
As far as the Dems go, Hillary has the nomination wrapped up no matter who wins in Iowa. Obama will never be president(you can take that to the bank). Even if he will be president someday, it wont be now. He has less experience than Bush had when he took office, and when its actually time for people to vote, Obama's campaign is going to tank.
Edwards is the "X factor" in this campaign. While Hillary may spar with Obama alot, you can bet your last dollar that Edwards is the guy she is most nervous about. He's very intelligent, gives off a presidential vibe, and could either shock everyone like Clinton did in 92 and go from third place in New Hampshire to the presidency, or his campaign could completely derail.
Hillary will win in Iowa, Edwards 2nd, and Obama 3rd. Obama's campaign will immediately collapse after that.
I will be voting for Edwards when the CA primary happens.
- Communist China
- Rep: 130
Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
I like Obama taking Iowa and making a major run for the Democratic nomination, I may just be an optimist but on the other hand his campaign has been the best run of the democrats. There is a lot more anti-Hillary than anti-Obama in the air, and Obama brings that 'outsider' image that for some reason is popular. I think a lot of people are wise enough to see that Bush is Big Government, and his administration is a group of politicians. Obama seems to be the most honest of the candidates.
Republicans are a mess. Guiliani is dead after Iowa, that's all I'm willing to bet. Romney isn't really runable either, somehow Huckabee looks like a legit nominee. I don't know if I could bear a president named Huckabee.
- Jimmy Zig Zag Bobiadis
- Rep: 25
Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
Obama brings that 'outsider' image that for some reason is popular.
He has an "outsider" image because he doesn't have any experience. The Obama lovers hate to hear that, but its true. This country is NOT going to elect someone who doesn't have the qualifications to be president. We already tried that and it was a horrific failure. We're not going to try it again when this country's manufacturing base no longer exists, we're in two wars, massive trade deficits, an almost worthless dollar, and sitting on a 9 trillion dollar debt.
All he does is go around yelling "change, change, CHANGE!!!!" Of course there's going to be change. Bush cant run for a 3rd term. I guess someone on his campaign staff forgot to tell him you need at least one idea to be president.
When its "crunch time", the media and the few Obama nutswingers are going to be shocked by how few votes he gets.
Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
Hilary > Obama > Edwards
Romney > Huckabee > Whoever
Not saying my faorite, just my predictions. I do think Hilary will slide & someone else will rise up for the Dems. I'm not ruling Obama out, but James I think you might be right, Edwards has that Presidential vibe, although I feel Obama would make a better Prez. Also, keep in mind Edwards hasn't been Senator for very long either, only like 6 or 8 years. And used to file multi-million dollar malpractice lawsuits against Insurance companies, hence raising rates making them unaffordable. People forget JFK was only Senator for a few years also, and didn't particularly like the job either. He was in 3rd place at one point in the Presidential election, and came up to win it.
Overall, I think Michael Bloomburg (current mayor of NYC) will announce his candidacy in the summertime & make a good run at it like Perot did in 92, might even win it.
- Communist China
- Rep: 130
Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
Communist China wrote:Obama brings that 'outsider' image that for some reason is popular.
He has an "outsider" image because he doesn't have any experience. The Obama lovers hate to hear that, but its true. This country is NOT going to elect someone who doesn't have the qualifications to be president. We already tried that and it was a horrific failure. We're not going to try it again when this country's manufacturing base no longer exists, we're in two wars, massive trade deficits, an almost worthless dollar, and sitting on a 9 trillion dollar debt.
All he does is go around yelling "change, change, CHANGE!!!!" Of course there's going to be change. Bush cant run for a 3rd term. I guess someone on his campaign staff forgot to tell him you need at least one idea to be president.
When its "crunch time", the media and the few Obama nutswingers are going to be shocked by how few votes he gets.
I really think your underestimating him. Bush was a governor, and the son of a President. I haven't seen a better time to be an 'outsider' in politics than right now. Of course lack of experience will hurt him, but Hillary will have problems. If the Republicans ran a viable candidate, which it seems they won't, Hillary could lose New York.
Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
Hillary definitely isn't going to have a cake walk to the presidency. She is her own worst enemy. She has problems in her own party. A lot of people think she is unelectable, but the choices in 08 are so terrible that she may win this thing by default.
You are right. If there was anybody half way decent for the republicans, not only would NY be in play, but so would CA, and also a ton of dems would vote for the republican. The "Reagan democrats" would sway one more election.
Re: Iowa Caucus. Lets hear your predictions!
All the votes aren't in yet, but they have declared Obama and Huckabee the winners. Jesus. I cant believe there are seriously that many people willing to vote for Obama. More proof the intelligence level in this country is in the shitter. People are more concerned about Britney's crotch than they are about the war in Iraq, so I guess an Obama nomination would be par for the course.
A win in Iowa doesn't really mean much historically. Clinton didn't even participate in 92, and I think Paul Tsongas won the Caucus in 92. On the republican side, I think Pat Buchanan won it in 96. Obviously neither of them won the presidency.
Romney got his ass kicked tonight. He spent more money than anybody in Iowa, and lost to Huckabee by double digits. While he can continue, a loss in New Hampshire will kill his campaign. If you're outspending your opponents by more than ten to one and you lose consecutively, its over.
Although Rudy didn't campaign much in Iowa, the fact he came in last place behind Paul should give him a cause for concern. Rudy is known by everybody, and if you come in last as the mainstream candidate it means you most likely aren't going to win anywhere.
Someone else who should be a bit worried is Edwards. He is in a dead heat with Clinton right now for 2nd, but he really needed a win here. He has been campaigning in Iowa longer than anybody. New Hampshire could make or break his campaign.
I think the lower level candidates like Kucinich, Paul, Dodd, Richardson, Thompson,etc. need to drop out and quit wasting peoples time. It needs to be down to 3 candidates in each party, and no votes need to be wasted.
