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Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Trump’s Inevitable Comeback
Donald Trump is slowly proving himself to be the most masterful politician in the history of the United States of America. We all remember the excited anticipation in the spring of 2015. With the end of the disastrous Obama administration fast approaching and the momentum of two landslide victories by the GOP in the House in 2010 and the Senate in 2014, the White House felt ripe for the taking with the coming election in 2016. For months we caught glimpses of an enormous and diverse field mobilizing for a possible bid for the highest office in the land. Will we see a rematch of Bush vs Clinton? What will become of the most interesting man in politics, Rand Paul? Will Chris Christie capitalize on his exposure from the 2012 Republican Convention? Who the hell is John Kasich? The instability wrought by two successive defeats at the hands of Barack Obama tore the Republican Party in half, leaving a power vacuum so large that 16 individual candidates accepted the call to fight. Conservatives knew they had a good shot; but they only had one shot, as the fate of the nation was (is) hanging in the balance. Uncertainty gripped conservatives nationwide.
And then there was Trump. Those on the Trump Train, myself included, have grown fond of reliving and retelling the glory of Trump’s march to the nomination. For months we watched that long-shot reality TV star single handedly end campaign after campaign from center stage of each Republican debate and behind that charmingly ridiculous profile picture on Twitter. Because we do not have the historical luxury of retrospect, the vast majority of people cannot comprehend and thus have not acknowledged the impossibility of what we witnessed just months ago. The contentiousness of the primary and of the general now has blinded the electorate with their political prejudices to the gravity of Trump’s victory, not for himself, but for us. Does anybody remember what politics was like before Trump? Does anybody remember what Republican meant before Trump? Does anybody remember what the media was like before Trump?
Trump said at the celebrated conclusion to his Republican National Convention, “I am your voice!” And what a biblical proclamation. To a country held hostage for decades by a fascistic political correctness omerta enforced by the green-haired lesbian Gestapo of Twitter, a statement like that should rival the Declaration of Independence. What hope was there in 2016, except for a Republican President? We asked for at the very least a Democrat-lite mulligan for the Bush family and The Donald gave us a promise to “smash through” the entire political machine of the liberal media-political-financial cartel. In 2014, totally sensible and maybe borderline racist discussions about the politics of immigration, race, and terrorism took place behind closed doors at family holiday parties and golf outings. “America first,” “border wall,” and “Muslim ban,” were phrases considered uncouth by even the conservative party in the bourgeois cesspool of internationalist Washington DC. Today the common sense of the everyman is broadcast on television every night in the throaty voice of a New York madman. The uncomplicated, unapologetic voice of the American people rising up to take their country back.
But of course no odyssey is complete without its monsters. Many times in the Homeric quest of our champion, the monied interests declared victory over the voice of the people in silent headlines and through the quiet, cultured mouths of mainstream talking heads. Ted Cruz’s upset win in the Wisconsin primary had the #NeverTrump mob salivating, surely there was no path forward to the then fabled and now forgotten magical number, 1237! Before the week was up, Frank Sinatra’s New York, New York played as The Donald emerged from his ragtag indie staff to claim a landslide victory in the empire state, 1237 in striking distance.
Fresh off of securing the required amount of pledged delegates in June, the most ardent passengers of the Trump Train gasped as our embattled conductor’s poll numbers began to drop for the first time in a full year. Outclassed in fundraising, surrounded by media lapdogs leashed by Democrat handlers, and now losing against the only opponent that mattered, it appeared to most that the great populist experiment of 2016 had derailed. Bill Kristol groomed a spoiler, historical footnote David French, and a counter coup consolidated behind Lyin’ Ted Cruz to unseat the presumptive nominee in Cleveland. Wasthis the final hour? Within the month, Trump’s monthly fundraising totals increased by 5000% and he overtook Hillary Clinton in nationwide polling and in most battleground states. By the time of his coronation at the RNC, Trump had the Clinton camp on the ropes and reeling from revolt within her own party; the White House was in sight. A Trump Presidency became the likely outcome.
Enter the present crisis. The Clinton DNC pulled no punches and scored more hits on Trump than all of his primary opponents combined. A disabled girl, an illegal immigrant, the parents of slain BLM poster thugs, token homosexuals, Michelle Obama’s arms, a confused Irish racist, a confused Arkansas rapist, and the President of the United States. All of this followed up by a concussed bag of meat that we’re not entirely sure wasn’t being propped up by a couple of goons like in Weekend at Bernie’s. Then of course there was the Muslim gold star father with the Democrats’ favorite political prop: the Constitution. The perfect victim, the perfect poison pill; and Trump took the bait. Even though Khan turned out to be an actual Islamic supremacist and Saudi based Islamist operative, Trump learned the hard way that the truth has no practical political value if it’s only written about in Breitbart.
His first fumble sent his odds on FiveThirtyEight to single digits once he bottomed out. Trump continues to poll behind nationally in battleground states and nationally. Far behind. For the first time since June, there are murmurs within elite Republican circles about replacing Trump as the nominee. Paul Nehlen, Paul Ryan’s primary opponent, ran on a platform singularly consisting of support for Donald Trump (and Chicago based bloggers getting in fights with Janesville municipal officials) and was soundly defeated only after Trump was cornered into endorsing Ryan just days before the election. Even Sean Hannity and Newt Gingrich begrudgingly acknowledged the state of a failing campaign in free fall.
And now, once again, the odds are stacked against Trump. The media narrative for weeks has pronounced the madman DOA and Hillary Clinton is favored overwhelmingly in almost every traditional measure for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. But there is evidence already of another comeback. Beginning with a speech last week in Ohio, a refined message has begun to take shape. In it, he laid out a more comprehensive and sensible strategy to foreign affairs with an important and politically brilliant emphasis on the rejection of Bush-era neoconservatism and the Iraq War. This week he continued with another speech delivered from a teleprompter in Milwaukee; possibly the first speech in modern history in which a Republican appealed explicitly to black voters. The speech was widely praised by conservatives of all stripes and set the foundation for the necessary target constituency to win in November.
With a mainstream and moderate, yet populist message, it is apparent that Trump is deliberately changing method and message to fight a winning general election campaign. New campaign additions such as Roger Ailes, Kellyanne Conway, and Stephen Bannon have been recruited this week and are rapidly refocusing Trump on a streamlined message. Today, the campaign’s first television ads will air in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. All of this has come as Hillary’s lead in the RCP polling average has fallen from eight to six points, and Trump is capitalizing on this cyclical swing with brute force and cold precision. Yesterday in North Carolina, he expressed regret for his misstatements. We are in the midst of another miracle.
Each Trump comeback, each Trump readjustment only proves that not only is this man capable to occupy the Oval Office, he is perhaps the most capable man. For starters, he is a 6? 2? American titan who, at 70 years old, sleeps only four hours a night and without drinking coffee or alcohol runs a $10 billion empire and flies from city to city each day to give 60 minute extemporaneous speeches in an historical bid for the most powerful office in the world. This compared with Hillary Clinton who is overcome with exhaustion after short speeches, cannot stand for prolonged periods of time, cannot sit up for prolonged periods of time, is prone to seizures, has trouble climbing stairs, is “often confused,” has not hosted a press conference in 8 months, and is paralyzed by anxiety when heckled. How will she fair against a man who once clotheslined the founder of WWF at Wrestlemania?
Aside from the physical wonder that is Donald Trump, his pending comeback perfectly demonstrates the pragmatism which qualifies him for the presidency. With each crisis presented, Trump has either punched through when the challenge was unserious or methodically calibrated an unbeatable tactic when the challenge is real. As detailed earlier, Trump won the pre-primary media contest, the primary election contest, successfully adjusted to the general, ascended to new heights with his RNC, and now is poised to defeat the American media in a fist fight. Obama got elected with the assistance of every political institution in the country including the opposing party. If Hillary gets elected, she will have been handed the job by a political machine that buried the visible reality that she is dying and that she should have been indicted by the FBI. Donald Trump, if elected, will have taken on the Republican Party, Fox News, the mainstream media, Wall Street, the federal government, Facebook, Twitter, the President, three former Presidents, and the continent of Europe, and won.
He has not gotten this far because “he says what people are thinking.” Andrew Dice Clay says things people are thinking. Donald Trump has gotten this far, and will be the next President of the United States, because he is supremely pragmatic, ruthlessly calculating, and quite possibly the most brilliant strategist in the world today. He is sizing up yet another miraculous comeback; and though it may not be the last, thought it may not be decisive, it will prove that this election will not be decided until November 8th. And it will be decided on Trump’s terms.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Ryan Lochte may throw his hat in the ring. He has the same basic qualifications that Hillary and Trump have.
Since you're putting the same amount of effort into this argument that you do for every other argument, basically, it popped in your head so of course it must be true...
(Btw, if someone had your exact job, which of course automatically makes you an expert on jobs and the economy, has a different opinion than you, who do we believe? And if all numbers are manufactured by the government, and therefore false, why were they so bad for so long? And why did you believe the bad numbers, which I provided, you're welcome, and actually used them in an agument if they don't count? Oh, and what are the real numbers and who has them and how did you fnd them?)
"Born in Chicago and raised in the suburb of Park Ridge, Illinois, Clinton attended Wellesley College, graduating in 1969, and earned a J.D. from Yale Law School in 1973. After serving as a congressional legal counsel, she moved to Arkansas, marrying Bill Clinton in 1975. In 1977, she co-founded Arkansas Advocates for Children and Families. She was appointed the first female chair of the Legal Services Corporation in 1978, and, the following year, became the first woman partner at Rose Law Firm. As First Lady of Arkansas (1979–81, 1983–92), she led a task force whose recommendations helped reform Arkansas's public schools, and served on several corporate boards.
As First Lady of the United States, Clinton led the unsuccessful effort to enact the Clinton health care plan of 1993. In 1997 and 1999, she helped create the State Children's Health Insurance Program. She also tackled the problems of adoption and foster care. At the 1995 UN conference on women, held in Beijing, Clinton stated in a then controversial and influential speech, that "human rights are women's rights and women's rights are human rights". Her marriage endured the Lewinsky scandal of 1998, and her role as first lady drew a polarized response from the public.
Clinton was elected in 2000 as the first female senator from New York, the only first lady ever to have sought elective office. Following the September 11 attacks, she voted to approve the war in Afghanistan. She also voted for the Iraq Resolution, which she later regretted. She took a leading role in investigating the health issues faced by 9/11 first responders. She voted against the Bush tax cuts. She was re-elected to the Senate in 2006. Running for president in 2008, she won far more delegates than any previous female candidate, but lost the Democratic nomination to Illinois Senator Barack Obama.
As Secretary of State in the Obama administration from 2009 to 2013, Clinton responded to the Arab Spring, during which she advocated the U.S. military intervention in Libya. She helped organize a diplomatic isolation and international sanctions regime against Iran, in an effort to force curtailment of that country's nuclear program; this would eventually lead to the multinational Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreement in 2015. Leaving office after Obama's first term, she wrote her fifth book and undertook speaking engagements before announcing her second presidential run in the 2016 election."
Louis CK on Hillary:
“It’s like if you were on a plane and you wanted to choose a pilot,” the “Louie” star said. “You have one person, Hillary, who says, ‘Here’s my license. Here’s all the thousands of flights that I’ve flown. Here’s planes I’ve flown in really difficult situations. I’ve had some good flights and some bad flights, but I’ve been flying for a very long time, and I know exactly how this plane works.’”
The comedian continued, saying, “Then you’ve got Bernie, who says, ‘Everyone should get a ride right to their house with this plane.’ ‘Well, how are you going to do that?’ ‘I just think we should. It’s only fair that everyone gets to use the plane equally.’ And then Trump says, ‘I’m going to fly so well. You’re not going to believe how good I’m going to fly this plane, and by the way, Hillary never flew a plane in her life.’ ‘She did, and we have pictures.’ ‘No, she never did it.’ It’s insane.”
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Meanwhile back to the rigged polls... Nate Silver has Ohio for Hillary at this point. I've only been using RCP average for state polling to put my map together and had OH @ 2.6+ for Clinton. He's gathering data from many more sources however and believes Ohio is now blue. Not as strong of leads as VA and CO for instance, but still blue. Trump leads in no swing states btw.
The map now looks like this, with Nate giving Hillary an 86% chance of winning with 356 EVs.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
buzzsaw wrote:Ryan Lochte may throw his hat in the ring. He has the same basic qualifications that Hillary and Trump have.
Since you're putting the same amount of effort into this argument that you do for every other argument, basically, it popped in your head so of course it must be true...
He exaggerated the truth to make himself look good. That's a key trait of both party's nominees. You can deny that all you want, but it is indeed true. A bit snarky? Sure, but still true.
(Btw, if someone had your exact job, which of course automatically makes you an expert on jobs and the economy, has a different opinion than you, who do we believe? And if all numbers are manufactured by the government, and therefore false, why were they so bad for so long? And why did you believe the bad numbers, which I provided, you're welcome, and actually used them in an agument if they don't count? Oh, and what are the real numbers and who has them and how did you fnd them?
How foolish do you want me to make you look?
My "opinion" as you call it isn't an opinion, it's a fact. If someone thinks everything is beautiful and people aren't underemployed and/or didn't stop bothering to look for work, they are wrong. That is a fact. The gov't knows it too which is why they adjusted what qualifies as unemployed.
Nowhere did I say all numbers are fabricated. I said the unemployment numbers are fabricated, and they are. They changed the definition of unemployed to make the numbers look better. I know you know this, so why you insist on pretending that they didn't is beyond me.
You're taking this way too personally. What I said was if those numbers are true, how can those numbers be true and also these other numbers that if you use any logic must be false based on the original numbers also be true. It's a valid question pointing out the hypocrisy of the numbers.
You're just going to have to live with the fact I know exactly what I am talking about and there's absolutely nothing you can do to disprove that. You have been trying for days/weeks and every time I swat you away like a little bug. I've seen it all man. I've covered everything from factories to retail to fortune 100 companies. I've hired professionals making $250K+ and I've hired line workers making $10/hr. I've done just about everything short of fast food and home builders, though I have hired people into the corporate entity that owns/franchises out fast food chains. There's very little in the job market that I haven't seen. There's even less that I don't understand. You can keep trying to discredit me if you want, but every time you do, my credentials become clearer and clearer. It's up to you if you want to keep going, but you keep taking steps backwards and it might be wise to just quit while you have some dignity left.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Should I bring up all of the presentations I've made (and been asked to make) at various universities and organizations regarding the job market, how to find a job, how to present a resume, etc? Do you need a list? At what point will you just accept that I know what I am talking about?
You support Hillary based on her supposed "qualifications" yet question mine. Insane. Safe to say I am more qualified to do my job than she is to be president. I'll stand by that as a fact as well...at worst we're equally qualified if you think I somehow exaggerated my qualifications.
- Smoking Guns
- Rep: 330
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
Trump is having a great week. This shit will tighten up. I don't care about the polls right now. Come October we will know. But he is bouncing back. I like his female campaign manager and left alone with her I would make love to her.
Re: 2016 Presidential Election Thread
polls will undoubtedly get tighter. No way either one is winning by 8%
Trump has dug himself a huge hole to climb out of, though, in every state he needs to win and a couple that were supposed to go to him easily.
Still looking for signs of the elusive 15% for Johnson to make the debates. Jill Stein is hurting him there.
